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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Brent

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I see both arguments here I do feel like it's been not as busy as the numbers say but there have been a record number of landfalls even if most of them except Laura weren't as bad as they could have been(especially with all the 2005 comparisons when literally every hurricane hit seemed to be a worst case scenario)
 

lexxnchloe

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I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.
 

Brent

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I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.
Oh you can believe the season definitely isn't over I totally expect a big one from the Caribbean at least in October
 

GaWx

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I see both arguments here I do feel like it's been not as busy as the numbers say but there have been a record number of landfalls even if most of them except Laura weren't as bad as they could have been(especially with all the 2005 comparisons when literally every hurricane hit seemed to be a worst case scenario)
Yep, the 2005 comparison was overhype to a once or twice in a century type of season for the US.

If I were just considering FL, it hasn’t been active other than the panhandle despite it being very active overall for the US. But Carolinas and Gulf coast have been very active overall. FL pen scraped only once with no direct TS+ hits so far if I’m not mistaken although Isaias likely gave some of the E coast TS winds.
 
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GaWx

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I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.
Just 1 more H hit and US ties 2004 and 2005 for most since 1985!
 
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Brent

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May have another Gulf storm?

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some
signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 

Brent

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We currently have 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic

Not a record but still pretty rare

Screenshot_20200916-012833.png
 
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910guy

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Yep, the 2005 comparison was overhype to a once or twice in a century type of season for the US.

If I were just considering FL, it hasn’t been active other than the panhandle despite it being very active overall for the US. But Carolinas and Gulf coast have been very active overall. FL pen scraped only once with no direct TS+ hits so far if I’m not mistaken although Isaias likely gave some of the E coast TS winds.
“Very active”? Noooo, not the Carolinas, not this season. I’ve dealt with more extended power outages over the past few years than I care to think about. Southport did get a hit but it could have been much worse. This season so far, for NC, has been calm, I’d love to keep it that way.
 
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Brick Tamland

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We have been very lucky so far avoiding major canes making landfall when you consider how active things have been. I am more concerned now with systems like Sally popping up off the east coast and in the Gulf than with the waves coming from Africa. Good thing is those usually don't have time to become a major hurricane before landfall.
 

wxdaniel

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It looks like we may have a wave/depression this weekend in the Gulf. Some ensembles and NAM support this.


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GaWx

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I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.
 

GaWx

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Only need 1 more landfall to tie the record... 2 to beat it..

View attachment 48874
I just found out that since 1851, 1886 has had the most US landfalling Hs with 7. Just behind that is the 6 of 1985. Among probably others, 1893, 2004, and 2005 have 5. So far, 2020 has 4 and it is only 9/18.

*Corrected as 2004 had 5, not 6, landfalling Hs. I took out Alex, despite giving Hatteras H winds, because it technically wasn't a landfall as the center was barely offshore.
 
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GaWx

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I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.
The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
 

Dawgdaze22

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The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
Looking to forward to it


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Brent

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The post above was based on analogs 1950-2019. I just checked analogs 1865-1949 and it looks equally as bad on those as far as late Sep-mid Oct hits on the US from the Caribbean, especially in FL. More later.
Not surprised at all
 

Brent

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The rest of the names hopefully we don't run out of these too :p

2005 only got to Zeta(also didn't hit Alpha til October 22nd!!)

il_570xN.png
 

BufordWX

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So what’s the record for the most named storms forming in 24 hours? Probably going to have had 3 today by this afternoon.
 

Downeastnc

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The end of the 12Z GFS is setting up a nightmare for the east coast....its funny because I was talking to Shaggy yesterday and said something like that track across FL then blocked up the coast into NC was how I thought we would get hit again if we did end up getting another storm up this way this season.

Obviously its 360hr out blah blah
 

GaWx

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I was just looking at some analogs to tell me what may lie ahead for late Sep-mid Oct and they aren't pretty for the US. I'll try to post more about this ASAP. Suffice it to say, this already historic season is likely far from over for the US. Hint as you might guess: it involves storms going through or originating in the Caribbean.

I looked at the storms that were in the Caribbean at some point and that had originated 9/21+ for analog seasons back to 1865 that were-1) during weak to moderate La Nina as of Sep and 2) that were preceded by weak to moderate El Nino the previous fall/winter

That gives me these ten: 1869, 1886, 1906, 1924, 1942, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2007

1. 1869: storm 10 (aka "Saxby Gale") identified first as already a cat 2 just N of the Bahamas late 10/3 moving rapidly NNE; therefore can assume it likely originated in the Caribbean very late Sep as there was a TS there on 10/1; this hit the NE US as a cat 2 on 10/4

2. 1886: storm 10 (aka "TX/LA H of 1886") formed 10/7 in Caribbean and hit TX/LA border as a cat 3 on 10/12

3. 1906: storm 8 (aka "FL Keys and Miami H of 1906") formed 10/8 in Caribbean and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/18

4. 1924: storm 10 (aka "Cuba H of 1924") formed 10/13 in Caribbean, hit Cuba as a cat 5, and hit S FL as a cat 1 on 10/20

5. 1942: none

6. 1954: Hazel formed 10/5 E of the Lesser Antilles, went into the Caribbean, and hit SC/NC border as a cat 4 on 10/15

7. 1964: a) Hilda formed 9/28 in Caribbean, became a cat 4, and hit LA as a cat 2 on 10/3


b) Isbell formed 10/8 and hit S FL as a cat 3 on 10/14

8. 1970: none

9. 1995: Opal formed 9/27, became a cat 4, and hit FL Panhandle as a cat 3 on 10/4

10. 2007: none

-----------------------------

So, in summary::

- a whopping 8 CONUS H hits from storms that were previously in the Caribbean during 7 of the 10 analog seasons! Of these 8, 5 were majors. So, out of 10 seasons, half had a major H hit on CONUS.

- genesis date range: 9/27-10/13

- CONUS landfall date range 10/3-20 with these dates: 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/18. 10/20

- Landfall locations: S FL 3; N Gulf coast: 3; SC/NC: 1; NE US: 1


** Conclusion based on ENSO analogs and then when also considering how warm the Caribbean is:


Likely (above average chance) CONUS H (quite possibly major) landfall 10/3-20 with highest chance S FL or N Gulf coast. The most concerning geneses would be in or just east of the Caribbean during 9/27-10/13.

Please don't shoot the messenger!
 
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