• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Ladies and gentleman, I think King Kong is trending towards a classic concrete pingerfest for a lot of us East of the mtns. At least I'm hoping it's mostly pingers. It better be.
 
Not enough Atlantic ridging to keep us warm and dry but just enough to keep us rain. Got to hand it to Mother Nature....we suck. Worst winter of my lifetime...give me the snowless 90’s back.

E29E55D5-FCE3-474F-BB71-6774EB525B85.pngC581FFE3-DEAD-4CE5-B8D2-50B128171B86.png
 
These model swings are crazy to me. I’m glad this didn’t happen back in 2014 when I first really started to dive deep into meteorology.. I used to hang my emotions on every model run.. I would of for sure developed bi-polar disorder, good thing I have learned my lesson: never keep your heart too close to the models (& real life ones too) just when you think it’s the one and it’s going to happen.. the rug comes flying as if a ghost pulled it something you couldn’t predict could happen... now you are left there with a broken heart and a dusty floor.. lmao
 
EastAtlwx said:
These model swings are crazy to me. I’m glad this didn’t happen back in 2014 when I first really started to dive deep into meteorology.. I used to hang my emotions on every model run.. I would of for sure developed bi-polar disorder, good thing I have learned my lesson: never keep your heart too close to the models (& real life ones too) just when you think it’s the one and it’s going to happen.. the rug comes flying as if a ghost pulled it something you couldn’t predict could happen... now you are left there with a broken heart and a dusty floor.. lmao
Click to expand...

Who are we to try to tell mother nature what it's going to do anyways. I bet if we put the majority of our focus into developing models/algorithms for no longer than day 3, we might could do better. I guess we really just need a "hint" for the medium-long range globally for preparation.. but with so many resolution upgrades and errors that compound as time goes on in the forecast, whats the point. Haha.
 
Shawn said:
Who are we to try to tell mother nature what it's going to do anyways. I bet if we put the majority of our focus into developing models/algorithms for no longer than day 3, we might could do better. I guess we really just need a "hint" for the medium-long range globally for preparation.. but with so many resolution upgrades and errors that compound as time goes on in the forecast, whats the point. Haha.
Click to expand...
Well, the ultimate problem in meteorology depends on two conditions being satisfied: “the present state of the atmosphere must be characterized as accurately as possible. The intrinsic laws, according to which the subsequent states develop out of the preceding ones, must be known” this is ultimate an initial value problem... Bjerknes does have an approach to this.. too long to summarize thus I present to you below (source: Atmospheric Data Analysis by Roger Daley, used in my data assimilation class) image.jpgimage.jpg
 
Shawn said:
Good point. If you take a bad snapshot, then what's the point of generating a forecast off erroneous data!
Click to expand...
Look up Ed Lorenz’s chaos theory.. pretty much as of right now it’s impossible to get an accurate forecast past 2 weeks.. there essentially a ceiling there.. think butterfly effect = tornado in brick’s backyard..

it’s actually crazy we legitimately ran the code for the first computer model in matlab towards the end of our data assimilation class...we actually also had access to cheyenne Wyoming’s supercomputer and I ran the HRRR I believe and set a limit on elevation to examine the changes in snowfall for the dec 2017 snow storm
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top