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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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CyclonicFury said:
February 12, 2014 would beg to differ, and if you include NC, February 17, 2015 and March 7, 2014. The chance of frozen precipitation doesn't vanish in February like you seem to insist for some reason.
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I don't remember anything for 2-12-14 when I was living in Carrollton, GA and I know I didn't see any ice in 2015. Typically Mid Feb-March is either rain or snow. I'm not saying you can't get frozen precip in Mid Feb in the deep south, but snow is much more common than ice late in the winter. Ice is largely an early-mid winter phenomenon in the deep south.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The wave hasn’t even been sampled yet
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GFS always loses storms and brings it back.
We've still got the Canadian.
It's trended NW but it can trend back south.
We've got an -NAO, SE ridge will get beaten down.
Check out the control run!
Check out ensemble member 37!

modernweenie modernweenie
 
I will say ice, probably a lot like snow in the SE is shown too heavily on models. The model we probably trust the most is the Nam for this, and just last week it was spitting out an inch of ice in places 24hours before the event. Most place got up to .10 or so. I honestly think we spend too much time looking at these maps that will mean 0 in 6 hours, but I guess thats the hobby.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure how less snow on the models today versus yesterday is not a worse look.
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Because you look at the ensembles. Not the operational runs. Yeah the gfs op had big storms yesterday but the ensembles didn't really support it
 
I mean, it's called the ICON for a reason.

They should rename it The ICON Sting.

tenor.gif
 
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