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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

Last time we dropped into the teens here was Jan 2019 with 17 degrees . It’s really possible we could go this winter as well if it is as warm as signs point without seeing teens which would make it possible that we go almost 3 years with no teens which is absurd ! If we make it through this Jan that’s 2 years !
 
Lickwx said:
Last time we dropped into the teens here was Jan 2019 with 17 degrees . It’s really possible we could go this winter as well if it is as warm as signs point without seeing teens which would make it possible that we go almost 3 years with no teens which is absurd ! If we make it through this Jan that’s 2 years !
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Id be very surprised if we don't get into the teens this year
 
SD said:
Id be very surprised if we don't get into the teens this year
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I would as well, our mean minimum last 30 years is 12 degrees so we should drop into the teens . However , if it’s warm we could narrowly avoid or just barely drop down to around 17-19 degrees .
 
The station at NCSU well into Raleighs UHI has a mean minimum of 14 degrees last 30 years ! Geez, they tend to be 2-4 degrees warmer than the airport at night . In 2018 the airport dropped to 4 but they only dropped to 9. Atlanta UHI similar story with a mean minimum of 16 last 30 years in its UHI.
 
Lickwx said:
I would as well, our mean minimum last 30 years is 12 degrees so we should drop into the teens . However , if it’s warm we could narrowly avoid or just barely drop down to around 17-19 degrees .
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I think the thing we have going for us is it's a Nina and we should be northern steam dominant. That being said if we can't find a way to get rid of this mean ridge across the region it'll be another lackluster year for cold. I'm interested to see if we start to weaken the jet in time and start getting a much more wavy pattern as we get deeper into the cold season. My biggest fear right now is we get another strong pv and we are fighting for scraps all winter then go cold in mid March through early May when the PV seasonal breakdown occurs
 
I'm starting to get a sinking feeling we're about to run the table on warmth in December in N America, contrary to the canonical La Nina paradigm of early winter cold. Hopefully, the SE US ridge isn't too bad.

A respectable signal is already starting to emerge for +NAO/+EPO/-TNH into the first portion of December

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Does that result in a more amped SS like how a El Niño itself would result in ?
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Yeah it actually encourages some southern stream disturbances, but most of those times where the pacific jet is able to effectively undercut the E US/Canada block w/ Indian Ocean MJO in early winter is during El Nino-Neutral ENSO. La Ninas often just keep the trough out west anyways and we bake.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it actually encourages some southern stream disturbances, but most of those times where the pacific jet is able to effectively undercut the E US/Canada block w/ Indian Ocean MJO in early winter is during El Nino-Neutral ENSO. La Ninas often just keep the trough out west anyways and we bake.
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Nino Phase 3 (actually kind of a classic CAD/Miller B look)

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Nina phase 3

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