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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

metwannabe said:
From looks of things early on the FV3 is going to be doubling down not backing down.... this goin be fun
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The whambulance thread is now merged into here to have one "Banter" thread.
 
FV3 is not at all believable but it’s been such a boring winter the model discrepancy inside 6 days is extremely entertaining. What’s the JMA showing..?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
FV3 is not at all believable but it’s been such a boring winter the model discrepancy inside 6 days is extremely entertaining. What’s the JMA showing..?
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Not only did the FV3 not back down but it doubled down with a much stronger wedge this run. It's either going to be an epic fail for the model or it is picking up on something the other models aren't yet.
 
snowlover91 said:
Not only did the FV3 not back down but it doubled down with a much stronger wedge this run. It's either going to be an epic fail for the model or it is picking up on something the other models aren't yet.
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You have been all over this one. Hope the FV3 is on to something and the other models come around like with the December storm.
 
Hoping we can break the pattern of going a few years in between major winter storms. December 2017 was great but we have been paying the price so far this winter. If anything I think our chances for major ice are better than anything else if we are to score this winter.
 
Brick Tamland said:
You have been all over this one. Hope the FV3 is on to something and the other models come around like with the December storm.
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Hopefully it will be correct, the reason it's so much colder than other models is it builds the HP in and holds it there whereas the GFS and Euro slide it OTS. I'd like to see other models come on board today and tomorrow with the idea, there have been some shifts in the GFS this direction which is a good sign. Let's see what the Euro does.
 
It feels like storms come in bunches more than anything if it's going to be a good winter, but maybe I'm thinking about the backyard in NW GA. After they were shutout for a while, they had 3 warning criteria winter storms in two winters in 09/10-10/11, plus they had an inch or two of snow with 2/12/10 (the storm that was bigger south). Then another dry period, then 3 winter storms again in 13/14-14/15. Then they also just barely had a decent snow with December 2017 last winter, I'm guessing based off of word, although others up there have disagreed with me they had 2-3" with that.

I can relate it some with home to a lesser extent.
 
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