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Severe 12/17-12/18 Severe Threat

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Bama Ravens

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Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
So we have a thread for the wintry potential with this system, but we also have a severe threat, so here is a separate thread for that.

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Instability looks pretty meh, shear is sufficient. Typical winter severe setup (high shear/low cape) if cape is under modeled could be a surprise or two. These setups tend to usually have an unforeseen trick or two up their sleeves.
 
I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado develop on the southern wedge boundary as it gets eroded by the south-westerly wind...I have seen this happen before around the Charlotte area. Very Low risk but non-zero.
 
SPC mentions potential for discreet storms at the outset.  Also mentions potential for some breaks in the clouds leading to locally higher CAPE values.  No doubt this will go look linear quickly, but the shear will be plenty adequate for the system to 'over perform' if a couple of ingredients come together right.
 
Running 18 hour HRRR shows some smaller, discreet cells out in front of main line this evening but they are mostly confined to North MS...as of this hour
 
looks like latest short range models starting to pick up on some discrete cells firing also in west ten later this afternoon... wind shear is off the chart  ... but directional shear not so great moment in the mid and upper levels
 
Tornado watches have been issued over most of western and central TN. For MBY looks like the dynamics will leave before the line gets here.
 
Already a couple of tornado warnings. That didnt take long!
 
I wonder if temps might have been under modeled. Already seeing a lot of mid to up 70s in MS. with some lower 80s in Southern MS. Already low 70s up to the I-20 corridor in Alabama.
 
latest RAP and HRRR are a little bit more bullish with the STP also widespread cape values in excess of 1000 j/kg over much of MS.
 
Thundersnow89 link said:
latest RAP and HRRR are a little bit more bullish with the STP also widespread cape values in excess of 1000 j/kg over much of MS.
Yeah, looks like over MS it is more of a broken line or semi-cellular. However, as it starts moving into AL it congeals into a line.
 
Trained spotter reported tornado on ground near Tyro, MS
 
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