Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[deltadog03]

The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons

Earlier you said....

I am thinking 2" average for B'ham..not really sure where the sweet spot will be, I could see a little south of town, but also a little north of town due to higher ratios, perhaps right over Bham metro.  But for now, I think 2" is a good average number.

Sooooo....which is it?

I am saying the cold air isn't on the euro because of the way it handle s/w and interaction with the ns...that is why I can't buy into the 2"+ yet...but I do think it will be colder than the euro

I agree with you Richard. The euro is not that far off from bringing a major hit. Problem is, as you said, the NS is not pushing out ahead and delivering the high.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

The biggest negative to the euro was the Temps. It never pushes down any cold ahead of the system. I still actually favor a slower gfs/cmc/ukmet solution. Now, if the eps agrees with the op. We are a bit in trouble. Eps didn't last night

Yes nervous will turn to fear

 

[accu35]

I still feel pretty good about this, I'm hoping tonight runs will improve, I agree with Storm Euro is fast with this, which I don't buy at all. I'm riding the GFS/CMC/Nam and others models on the same time period. Can't ignore the GFS with those Totals and the CMC

 

[Arcc]

Yuck, atleast be suppressed and give me a dry weekend.

 

[Webberweather53]

CMC took a baby step toward a weaker solution as well

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everything has trended weaker. is it right? hard to tell but there is a trend no doubt

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I think Webber hit the nail on the head...without the NS attempting some kind of phasing in the Gulf or SE coast...this is gonna keep trending weaker

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If anything I'm concerned about a stronger storm, the euro doesn't look weaker to me just warmer in the lower levels... The euro took a step in the direction of more phasing near the eastern seaboard by digging the Great Lakes s/w further SW and if we see another shift or two like that, we could be looking at a big dog Miller A off the Carolina coast and a blockbuster storm for somebody near the central-western Carolinas and VA. If the trend in this 1st shortwave (deeper, further SW) is any indication of whats to come, then this scenario is a very real possibility...

 

[HartselleWeather]

The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons

Earlier you said....

I am thinking 2" average for B'ham..not really sure where the sweet spot will be, I could see a little south of town, but also a little north of town due to higher ratios, perhaps right over Bham metro.  But for now, I think 2" is a good average number.

Sooooo....which is it?

I am saying the cold air isn't on the euro because of the way it handle s/w and interaction with the ns...that is why I can't buy into the 2"+ yet...but I do think it will be colder than the euro

What's you opinion on totals for cullman and north of there.

 

[GaWx]

well we all ride the ukie then ....

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Storm and others,
 But do we even know if the 850's/2 meter temp.'s are cold enough on the 12Z UKMET? Similar to the Euro, the track is great for a classic snow for many in the SE. But like the Euro, is it cold enough for many to get much? Also, is there any CAD? We have no 84 hour map to help show that nor have I seen any 850 or two meter temp.'s past 72 hours. Aren't we kind of flying partially blind with the Ukie?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The UKMET doesn't have temp or p type maps available which is a shame. It's consistently shown a good track for winter weather but we don't know the other details.

 

[richardjacks]

The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons

Earlier you said....

I am thinking 2" average for B'ham..not really sure where the sweet spot will be, I could see a little south of town, but also a little north of town due to higher ratios, perhaps right over Bham metro.  But for now, I think 2" is a good average number.

Sooooo....which is it?

I am saying the cold air isn't on the euro because of the way it handle s/w and interaction with the ns...that is why I can't buy into the 2"+ yet...but I do think it will be colder than the euro

What's you opinion on totals for cullman and north of there.

I think there will be 2"+ stripe somewhere, possibly there...but the Euro keeps throwing me some doubt.  I would say 2" is fairly good bet at this point.

 

[SnowHusky]

JMA, 500mb, winds vorticity

 

[richardjacks]

When I have a chance to look closer, I will confirm...but I am thinking the distance between the s/w and ns prob helps creat a "sympathetic" ridge that is promoting the surface high-which is pushing the colder air in before the s/w heads to the gulf. If there is more interaction, there is less of a ridge in between.

 

[ForsythSnow]

JMA, 500mb, winds vorticity

Based on the 850s, looks good for quite a few, and also seems like a decent hit as well, looking at the QPF

 

[SnowHusky]

0z NAVGEM 500mb, vorticity

 

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z JMA per the surface low track/850's/qpf says that the corridor from Anniston, AL, through ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte/RDU would get hammered with a big snowstorm. There's also CAD available for IP/ZR to the south.

 

[Snowfan]

JMA is not that reliable.

 

[richardjacks]

JMA is not that reliable.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on anything from the JMA.

 

[Snowfan]

AN AREA OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE
BULK OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING
A SYSTEM SOMETIME ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN THERE REMAINS A LOT OF
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EXACT DEPTH AND TRACK OF THE STORM WHILE IT
QUICKLY LIFTS NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
GFS CURRENTLY ON THE WEAKER/EASTERN EDGE OF MODEL SPREAD AND THE
00Z UKMET CURRENTLY REPRESENTING THE STRONGEST/CLOSET TO THE COAST
SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD. ALSO...MINIMAL CLUSTERING WITH ENSEMBLE
LOWS AND LARGE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES SUGGESTS THERE IS
STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
WPC discussion

 

[accu35]

JMA is not that reliable.

Yeah, I wouldn't count on anything from the JMA.

But sometimes in a short range as of this, it actually is right, lol. Not all the time but in cases like these.

 

[SnowHusky]

I know the JMA isn't reliable, I'm going through models that have that low closer to the coast and the JMA is one of them. There could be a northerly trend back on the GFS, usually there is.

 

[GaWx]

JMA is not that reliable.

 I'll go further and say that the JMA is not reliable at all. I put it with the CMC at best. Even that may be generous.