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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

JB is gonna slosh this puppy up the coast
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There going to be shuffling around on models but overall this still is potential winter storm threat. GFS para, CMC, gfs, UKmet, the ENS all support a winter storm. GFS is normal good in short range.
 
Less NS with the weaker solution may also be what's behind the warmer solution....at work so haven't got to really look at it

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Seems like our choices with this storm is down to two:

Choice 1: Weaker, colder, a lot of people involved with a decent winter event but not a big event, North Carolina and Tennessee with a non significant event.
Choice 2: Stronger, but warmer and temp issues, better storm for the mid south.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS hasn't been trending north, it's just been trending weaker with what I can tell.

This might be a case like February 2015 in which one model had it absolutely nailed down for several runs and the other models showed something different and disappointed a lot of people in the areas which were very borderline, but I haven't seen those cases happen too often. In most cases the consensus is what usually happens and for two straight runs we've seen the consensus lean to a winter storm.
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GFS has been suppressing and weakening the storm.

And I remember this type of scenario playing out last year as well, GFS vs Euro .... I don't remember there being a role reversal like this one though.  I say take a middle of the road approach with the 12z model suites.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Seems like our choices with this storm is down to two:

Choice 1: Weaker, colder, a lot of people involved with a decent winter event but not a big event, North Carolina and Tennessee with a non significant event.
Choice 2: Stronger, but warmer and temp issues, better storm for the mid south.
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I'd probably agree with this. 

[font=Tahoma, sans-serif]I've got to say though, after following many storms from the TW and now SouthernWx days, this probably is the one that is the most intriguing in almost every aspect - track, strength, temperature, precipitation shield, model inconsistency even within 100 hours of final outcome.[/font]
 
My ultimate point is, while the Euro is usually the best model out there I've only seen one time in which one model that is going against what consensus says win completely. It's actually not even a bad look for the mid south, it's spitting out less precip than it should though apparently. It apparently looks the same as 00z except for less precip.
 
Guys, don't give up on the Euro, it still agrees with the UKMET both images are from 12z Euro
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I'd rather have a slower solution like the gfs /cmc . The euro was in crack this run bringing everything in much much quicker

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Storm5 said:
I'd rather have a slower solution like the gfs /cmc . The euro was in crack this run bringing everything in much much quicker

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Would like to see a comparison of 00z to 12z Euro to show the reasoning behind the changes, but cant do so here at work. Anyone have this?
 
DadOfJax said:
RichardJacks said:
The euro is the reason why I haven't bought into the +2" for I20 area...the cold air just isn't there...for a number of reasons
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Earlier you said....

RichardJacks said:
I am thinking 2" average for B'ham..not really sure where the sweet spot will be, I could see a little south of town, but also a little north of town due to higher ratios, perhaps right over Bham metro.  But for now, I think 2" is a good average number.
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Sooooo....which is it?
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I am saying the cold air isn't on the euro because of the way it handle s/w and interaction with the ns...that is why I can't buy into the 2"+ yet...but I do think it will be colder than the euro
 
The biggest negative to the euro was the Temps. It never pushes down any cold ahead of the system. I still actually favor a slower gfs/cmc/ukmet solution. Now, if the eps agrees with the op. We are a bit in trouble. Eps didn't last night
 
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