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Pattern Ninovember

The latest GFS finally gets some rain in here on two seperate occasions first week of November. To the tune of 3-4 inches statewide.

However the 0z Euro Op still has us in a the Nada Doghnut hole out through Nov 7th. Ugh!!!!

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I was surprised to see this today, felt like we were heading in a positive direction with the 12z runs yesterday toward getting more substantial rain chances. It seems like it's only a matter of time with the pac jet getting more consolidated and extended as we get toward Halloween.
 
The CFS 10 day for Nov for the E US has warmed 2-3F since 20 days ago:

Latest:
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20 days ago:
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No surprise here. I'll believe we're below normal when I see it

Just like the Thanksgiving "snow" I saw last night. Everyone always jinxes it here anyway(hence my sarcasm about it being 80 instead)

It's gonna be a long winter like I said before
 
No surprise here. I'll believe we're below normal when I see it

Just like the Thanksgiving "snow" I saw last night

It's gonna be a long winter like I said before

Agreed, no surprise at all. Early winter should be mild as all indications have been suggesting, including super Nino/+QBO analogs, despite the weaker than avg SPV in the 1st 1/2 of Nov. Our greatest hope remains Feb.
 
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