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Pattern Octorchber

weather bubba said:
I need to check my sensor on my outdoor digital thermometer. It was showing 32 degrees this morning at sunrise. The mercury thermometer under my carport was showing 41 degrees which is much closer to reality. It got cold overnight but it wasn't freezing cold. A mercury thermometer is a good back up plan for people who rely on digital weather stations.
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I think you have it backwards. The thermometer in your carport is showing artificially high due to the heat released from the house and (likely) concrete of the carport, as well as the carport blocking or reflecting heat that would have been radiating into space. There's also the effect at night that can cool the lower six feet of the atmosphere such that the indicated air temperature of a sensor at the nominal 6' height shows 38 F, but there is frost at the ground level.
 
crecre9 said:
I think you have it backwards. The thermometer in your carport is showing artificially high due to the heat released from the house and (likely) concrete of the carport, as well as the carport blocking or reflecting heat that would have been radiating into space. There's also the effect at night that can cool the lower six feet of the atmosphere such that the indicated air temperature of a sensor at the nominal 6' height shows 38 F, but there is frost at the ground level.
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You make some valid points but the low at RDU Sunday morning was also 41 degrees. I'm usually close to what RDU records as far as temperatures except on very hot days where RDU runs about three to five degrees above most of the other reporting stations. This issue with the digital weather station has popped up before, usually when the batteries are about to go dead in the sensor. I'll put some new batteries in it later this week and we'll see if that solves the issue.
 
shortstopsergio said:
Will it ever rain again??? This pattern is garbage and I’m seeing no rain for two more weeks plus!
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It is the opposite of garbage to me. The cool and dry is about as good as one can get for being outdoors!

Regarding rain, ATL area just got 2” from Isaias last weekend and Euro Weeklies, the NOAA Nov forecast, and very strong El Niño climo suggests so much rain starting within a few weeks that many are liable to be sick of the gloom from frequent rain once this winter is over!
 
Rain Cold said:
Made it to 32 exactly this morning.
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You beat me to freezing!! Coldest I’ve been this fall was 33 Saturday morning! This is going to be such a sucktastic winter up here! More 80s this week! I feel like I’m in a Shetley dream, 🌵 are starting to appear!
I swear I watched a tumbleweed blow down main street yesterday, ( really) have no idea where it came from!!👀
 
Tarheel1 said:
You beat me to freezing!! Coldest I’ve been this fall was 33 Saturday morning! This is going to be such a sucktastic winter up here! More 80s this week! I feel like I’m in a Shetley dream, 🌵 are starting to appear!
I swear I watched a tumbleweed blow down main street yesterday, ( really) have no idea where it came from!!👀
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Lol...it may not be as bad as you think.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol...it may not be as bad as you think.
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It's crazy but like some of these people here are still mad winter was over in January or it was
80 degrees at Christmas or they don't even think us getting only 8 inches of snow was acceptable. I got downvoted the other day for saying last winter was actually pretty good on the snow front

It's crazy how much different it is out here. The expectations are insane with some people. Just snowing is not acceptable here

I can't even imagine what the posts will be like if we do worse this winter because we've had way worse winters than that just since I've been here. Who can forget the snow holes in 22-23 and 23-24 and only getting basically an inch or two the whole winter... That's the kind of winter I'm fearing
 
If you like daytime highs 68-72 and 0% chance of rain. Then your gonna be living in Glory next 10 days not just in NC/ but really just about everyone on this board.

I do see both the GFS and Euro AI models, along with the GFS Op showing some rain out toward end of their runs 11/2-11/3, But thats a long way off to have any faith in. Good news is you can see we are gonna get a heavy heavy dose of LP's coming from our Southwest and up the seaboard / OTS this year. Witnessed this a couple times already. The pace should really start to increase as we roll through Nov and on through D,J,F.

Our leaves are right on scedule. we always peak Halloween into 1st week Nov. Should see a pretty uniform all drop at one time first 2 weeks of Nov thanks to the past 2 nights of light frost. If we dont get any rain by then, its gonna create some bad fire wx coupled with the low DP's. I wouldnt be the least suprised to see mtn counties have a breakout somewhere in about a week or so. They have peaked up top and nearing/ at peak down to the valley floors now. Lot of leaf litter accumulating and sitting around.
 
NCSNOW said:
If you like daytime highs 68-72 and 0% chance of rain. Then your gonna be living in Glory next 10 days not just in NC/ but really just about everyone on this board.

I do see both the GFS and Euro AI models, along with the GFS Op showing some rain out toward end of their runs 11/2-11/3, But thats a long way off to have any faith in. Good news is you can see we are gonna get a heavy heavy dose of LP's coming from our Southwest and up the seaboard / OTS this year. Witnessed this a couple times already. The pace should really start to increase as we roll through Nov and on through D,J,F.

Our leaves are right on scedule. we always peak Halloween into 1st week Nov. Should see a pretty uniform all drop at one time first 2 weeks of Nov thanks to the past 2 nights of light frost. If we dont get any rain by then, its gonna create some bad fire wx coupled with the low DP's. I wouldnt be the least suprised to see mtn counties have a breakout somewhere in about a week or so. They have peaked up top and nearing/ at peak down to the valley floors now. Lot of leaf litter accumulating and sitting around.
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Yup....not sure about you but the peak is clawing it's way down to 2-3K near Dupont/Pisgah. Ironically if you view the mountains, some have lot's of color at 2K but some are still abundantly green.
 
DupontWx said:
Yup....not sure about you but the peak is clawing it's way down to 2-3K near Dupont/Pisgah. Ironically if you view the mountains, some have lot's of color at 2K but some are still abundantly green.
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I was up at a project in Blairsville at 2500 feet on Friday and there was a big difference between there and Ellijay. It's coming fast now.
 
Daily after 12z model suite Run / Zilch qpf out to 360 hours DOUGHNUT HOLE UPDATE:

10/20/26 Still alive and kicking. Good news it's has shrunk in size today on several models. Bad news Myself and several of us are still sitiing dead square in the NADA bullseye.

@ shaggy maybe the Canadian is on to something for next week. 12z euro isnt to diff. little more east and LP hanging around 1000mb.
 
Yawn, but very pleasant. GSP did clip 39F on Monday morning. It doesn’t feel this way after the ridiculous heat of last week, but this is pretty much just average for high temperatures
 
Day 4+ pattern gets messy in the AK down the west coast corridor with the ridge trying to extend over the GOA trough and potentially rex. That throws the pattern across the CONUS into Canada into a mess as models try to resolve whether or not energy cresting the ridge misses the connection to the GOA trough or it gets hooked back under it. Probably going to be some wild swings between a big SER and a cooler/cold overrunning pattern leading into Halloween.
 
The last couple mornings at 41F/42F have started the maples turning at the crown. Very ugly color to be honest owing to the drought this year. Red oaks are just dropping the occasional brown leaf. Looking at pictures from last year the change is right at 2 weeks later.
 
GaWx said:
It is the opposite of garbage to me. The cool and dry is about as good as one can get for being outdoors!

Regarding rain, ATL area just got 2” from Isaias last weekend and Euro Weeklies, the NOAA Nov forecast, and very strong El Niño climo suggests so much rain starting within a few weeks that many are liable to be sick of the gloom from frequent rain once this winter is over!
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I remember a slew of days in the early 60's where we set a record of days without sun in Atl. I'm remembering 43, but was probably 23. I loved it. Always the sleet loving contrarian. Not all rain caused, maybe most not. I suspect it was persistent weak cad bringing clouds, but that's a guess. Sometime, when you are feeling foot loose with the abacus, I wish you'd confirm my memories if such records are kept. And that could have been tv records, not airport.

No, it had to be from the airport, because I remember it being a thing. No sun for weeks, and oh, the humanity. Nov's were always deliciously dreary, cloudy and with cad drizzle off the Atlantic. But this might have been summer as I was walking home from school those summer school days, but I'm seeing this picture in my head of me being nearly home and the sun peaking out, and how I was sad the string was over, and I wasn't shivering.

But persistent cad is a Nov thing, and biting. Or used to be when weather was weather, and not this stuff we have now, lol. I hope this winter harkens back to the days of yore. I'd love 30 days of low clouds and drizzle, then into record snows late Dec. That could be my new yore. All that said 40's at night doesn't suck. I get to bundle up more than last month.
 
dsaur said:
I remember a slew of days in the early 60's where we set a record of days without sun in Atl. I'm remembering 43, but was probably 23. I loved it. Always the sleet loving contrarian. Not all rain caused, maybe most not. I suspect it was persistent weak cad bringing clouds, but that's a guess. Sometime, when you are feeling foot loose with the abacus, I wish you'd confirm my memories if such records are kept. And that could have been tv records, not airport.

No, it had to be from the airport, because I remember it being a thing. No sun for weeks, and oh, the humanity. Nov's were always deliciously dreary, cloudy and with cad drizzle off the Atlantic. But this might have been summer as I was walking home from school those summer school days, but I'm seeing this picture in my head of me being nearly home and the sun peaking out, and how I was sad the string was over, and I wasn't shivering.

But persistent cad is a Nov thing, and biting. Or used to be when weather was weather, and not this stuff we have now, lol. I hope this winter harkens back to the days of yore. I'd love 30 days of low clouds and drizzle, then into record snows late Dec. That could be my new yore. All that said 40's at night doesn't suck. I get to bundle up more than last month.
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Hey Tony,
I’m not aware of where to find the record for longest with no sunshine. So, I checked AI and saw this with “wedgelike” mentioned:

Official climatological agencies (like NOAA) do not maintain a standardized record for consecutive days "without sunshine" because cloud cover is highly variable and historically measured subjectively.
However, looking at historical local weather data for Atlanta, GA, the longest recorded stretch of consecutive 100% overcast days with zero recorded sunshine is 8 days in a row, which occurred in November 2024. During this rare weather pattern, a stagnant, wedge-like cloud deck completely blanketed Metro Atlanta from morning until night for over a week.
 
GaWx said:
Hey Tony,
I’m not aware of where to find the record for longest with no sunshine. So, I checked AI and saw this with “wedgelike” mentioned:

Official climatological agencies (like NOAA) do not maintain a standardized record for consecutive days "without sunshine" because cloud cover is highly variable and historically measured subjectively.
However, looking at historical local weather data for Atlanta, GA, the longest recorded stretch of consecutive 100% overcast days with zero recorded sunshine is 8 days in a row, which occurred in November 2024. During this rare weather pattern, a stagnant, wedge-like cloud deck completely blanketed Metro Atlanta from morning until night for over a week.
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Thanks, Larry. I kind of figured it wouldn't be in the official records because the weather is so different across small areas. I wonder if channel 2 or 5 have those kind of records. How extensive are weather mets records? And do they keep them. It has to be specific to down town out out to midtown, 'cause maybe it was sunny and beach weather in Vinings. Yesterday morning it was 39.6 two miles away. Don't know what it was here as my base is shot. But I bet that's cold for a lot around me.

Anyway, 8 days is nothing to sneeze at. I bet a lot of sun bunnies were going tharn.
 
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