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Pattern NC Only Thread

Rainbow after the rain in Wake Forest
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It seems like something has changed in terms of how rain forms now that the climate is so warm. Clear and obvious environmental conditions that used to result in widespread rain, frequently only result in partly cloudy skies and widely scattered to isolated showers, possibly a rogue thunderstorm.

Humidity at 250%, steep lapse rates, boundaries everywhere, strong instability, and a massive shortwave, and you end up with a nice partly cloudy afternoon.
 
Rain Cold said:
It seems like something has changed in terms of how rain forms now that the climate is so warm. Clear and obvious environmental conditions that used to result in widespread rain, frequently only result in partly cloudy skies and widely scattered to isolated showers, possibly a rogue thunderstorm.

Humidity at 250%, steep lapse rates, boundaries everywhere, strong instability, and a massive shortwave, and you end up with a nice partly cloudy afternoon.
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Yeah something has changed. But also, summer time rainfall is almost always scattered convection, some winners and some losers. Usually, however, you have wet springs and if you miss out on some of the summer convection, it's bad but not horrible. Throw in a dry winter, a very dry spring and then miss out on most of the summer convection and it's nearly a disaster. I've heard as much thunder this summer as just about any other just missed probably 80% of them.
 
Rain Cold said:
It seems like something has changed in terms of how rain forms now that the climate is so warm. Clear and obvious environmental conditions that used to result in widespread rain, frequently only result in partly cloudy skies and widely scattered to isolated showers, possibly a rogue thunderstorm.

Humidity at 250%, steep lapse rates, boundaries everywhere, strong instability, and a massive shortwave, and you end up with a nice partly cloudy afternoon.
Click to expand...

Been my experience too - one thing I see more now than ever is cloud debris, and its persistent - particularly at night and acts a blanket. This results in lows of 78° at night (warm air can't escape) and then this builds over time to create a cap. In the past - seems like we were able clear the deck near nightfall or shortly after, and lows were in the high 60's. (not anymore).

Shortwaves under the heat dome seems limited in capacity (exhibit A yesterday) where the shortwave stayed in WNC and did not do much of anything.
 
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We need a significantly large tropical system to help break this dry pattern - but that comes at the expense of us living where we live. I would rather we stay status quo and 95° everyday then experience any loss of life, property damage and mental anguish.
 
SuperNET said:
Been my experience too - one thing I see more now that ever is cloud debris, and its persistent - particularly at night and acts a blanket. This results in lows of 78° at night (warm air can't escape) and then this builds over time to create a cap. In the past - seems like we were able clear the deck near nightfall or shortly after, and lows were in the high 60's. (not anymore).

Shortwaves under the heat dome seems limited in capacity (exhibit A yesterday) where the shortwave stayed in WNC and did not do much of anything.
Click to expand...
The Euro was quite bullish for much of the southeast and mid Atlantic yesterday, but the radar at game time was quite paltry. That's just one model, but still, it was not great.
 
Scan of the overnight models say Full on Summer as far as temps go rest of this week into weekend. (mid 80's- upper 80's flavor)

Then Indian summer Days 9-13 with a high hitting 80-81 ech day

Then looks like we only get mid 70's high temps out around 27th ish Days 13-15.

Used the euro suite with euro AI.

Hate to post this, root for the GFS. But the Euro says enjoy having cotton mouth rest of the month. Not what we want to see. If this is correct, it will least look like Fall as Im noticing alot of leaf change and shedding starting to happen with the Poplars and even Dogwoods now due to the prolonged heat and drought,'


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Greensboro is runing +6.5 AN for September as we cross the halfway mark.

For comparison purposes. I would write a check to repeat super el nino December 1997 this December as we averagaged -3.5 BN. However if you go back and look at Sept 1997 it was solidily BN. Unlike our current Sept of AN.
 
NCSNOW said:
Greensboro is runing +6.5 AN for September as we cross the halfway mark.

For comparison purposes. I would write a check to repeat super el nino December 1997 this December as we averagaged -3.5 BN. However if you go back and look at Sept 1997 it was solidily BN. Unlike our current Sept of AN.
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97-98 is still the leader in the clubhouse but 15-16 is on the course on pace to shoot a 59. Really illustrates the point that December is very likely strongly bn like 97 or an like 15. I'm not wild about where we stand right now for winter, I think given the pattern so far you have to lean to the warm side of analogs. It would be really nice to see the pattern show some signs of life along the WC and actually attempt ridging as we get into October to feel better about winter
 
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