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Pattern NC Only Thread

RBR71 said:
Yeah .25 for the month this far. Things gonna look like I never saw the 6" from last month real quick. Only 2 months with 4" or more in last 13 months, both July and that's it
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I've been scoring good storms all week. I can't complain and the airports doubled the YTD total inna month.

What I will complain about is the humidity. June/July was brutally hot with lots of mid and upper 90s but DPs were in the low 60s with 25mph winds. This morning before the storms we were 86/80 and it was unbearable.
 
That's a pretty disturbed flow next week. Upper ridge never really flexes into the area and a lot of energy runs across the state or just north, pwats still stay up but not as crazy as they have been, daily capes of 2-3k, general wnw flow may help sharpen the piedmont trough. In a year where we were printing rain i would say take the over on the current model qpf but this year not so sure. If we can wave to ripple through this pattern is a good one to run a line across a good part of the state.

Sunday would be the first day that I think we could get something going with the weak trough passing by the north and maybe a remnant mcv moving in
 
SD said:
That's a pretty disturbed flow next week. Upper ridge never really flexes into the area and a lot of energy runs across the state or just north, pwats still stay up but not as crazy as they have been, daily capes of 2-3k, general wnw flow may help sharpen the piedmont trough. In a year where we were printing rain i would say take the over on the current model qpf but this year not so sure. If we can wave to ripple through this pattern is a good one to run a line across a good part of the state.

Sunday would be the first day that I think we could get something going with the weak trough passing by the north and maybe a remnant mcv moving in
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Wake Co. North and west, that's my bet
 
If nothing else this is one of the best ofbs of the season locally. Really thought today would be pretty slow convection wise, CAMs were dead. Just goes to show once storms get to rolling and barf out an ofb we are generally going to be unstable enough to get something and these ultra low qpf outputs may not be correct for local locations
 
SD said:
its crazy watching all these MCS on various models dive SE then hit the NC/VA border and just die. We can't find any other weather fast enough
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Yeah it's unbelievable to see, literally like it's a force field over the state. I guess we've managed our own mini HP dome
 
BHS1975 said:
Hopefully the models are off as usual on those and they over perform.
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Let's hope so, soundings aren't that bad to at least attempt to maintain these into the area. The only thing I can see that might be a negative is the amount of dry air in the mid levels that might help in getting OFB's pushed so far out ahead they choke themselves out. It's crazy how bad the CAM's are though overall, that said, they were practically dead over the weekend and reality beat model both days
 
SD said:
Let's hope so, soundings aren't that bad to at least attempt to maintain these into the area. The only thing I can see that might be a negative is the amount of dry air in the mid levels that might help in getting OFB's pushed so far out ahead they choke themselves out. It's crazy how bad the CAM's are though overall, that said, they were practically dead over the weekend and reality beat model both days
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HRRR already hinting at them making it through Wake.
 
SD said:
Let's hope so, soundings aren't that bad to at least attempt to maintain these into the area. The only thing I can see that might be a negative is the amount of dry air in the mid levels that might help in getting OFB's pushed so far out ahead they choke themselves out. It's crazy how bad the CAM's are though overall, that said, they were practically dead over the weekend and reality beat model both days
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Seeing the same - seeing some nice development now over head.
 

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