GeorgiaGirl
Member
The atmosphere definitely is doing a good bit of work today because for the most part, there was nothing on the radar for me and there was heavy mist for several hours.
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Tropical TS Imelda
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Shaggy
Member
Not sure what it means for rainfall but on IR it seems that NW part of the storm and convection is expanding NW towards the coast a little more
IR Satellite Loop for Northwest Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/UEi2RiMKkHKIGLhX5
IR Satellite Loop for Northwest Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits https://share.google/UEi2RiMKkHKIGLhX5
NCSNOW
Member
Been pleased with rain all the way up an over here from this storm. More to come tonight. Big blessing!
iGRXY
Member
It’s been a consistent rain here all day and this evening with heavier bands here and there. Definitely more than I thought we would get. Figured we would just get overcast skies from the the outer edge
We’ve had steady rain here for a good part of the day. Not sure what it amounted to but it was downright fall like at my son’s baseball game tonight
Avalanche
Member
Yes. I have had a near constant rain with embedded downpours. So needed too.
I got exactly what I wanted out of it.
Shaggy
Member
I think you meant to say "I got exactly what I wanted minus the 60mph gusts"
Avalanche
Member
True story!!!
BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...IMELDA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
Are we at all concerned that if Humberto collapses that it will cease to influence Imelda? It is looking pretty bad and was forecast to remain a major through at least tomorrow. Big ridge is building in over top over the next 3 days.
Shaggy
Member
Humberto is really falling apart now. Completel separation of convection from the LLC
Yeah, this wasn't supposed to happen. No model really showed this rapid weakening. The NHC had this being a major for the next couple of days as of yesterday. Um....
All last night I kept looking and looking at Humberto and I'm like what the heck is going on here because it went from a Cat 5 to a Cat 2 and the presentation of the storm doesn't look anywhere near like it did say 24-48 hrs ago
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Dang is this about to direct hit Bermuda as a Cat 2?
idk, every single model & ensemble, experimental or not says it's not coming back. i don't think they're wrong.
100mph now
Brent
Member
Gonna be very very close to Bermuda tonight
Very very hard to get a direct hit there
Very very hard to get a direct hit there
Stormsfury
Member
Looks like its about to make a direct landfall or already has. Likely to get extremely heavy winds plus a sting jet has formed with Imelda. In the early to mid stages of extratropical transition per NHC 11pm discussion
Stormsfury
Member
The ICON and UKMET were absolutely stellar in that neither model had even one run hitting the coast or even stalling at the coast. None ever got closer than 100 miles from the US. I made sure to post every UKMET with a TC as well as any Icon that nobody else posted.
All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 0Z on 9/26 are still on Tropical Tidbits:
ICON: The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W. But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS.
UKMET: The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run).
Furthest W of each UKMET run
9/23 12Z: 77.1W
9/24 0Z: no TC
9/24 12Z: 77.2W
9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W
9/26 0Z: 77.3W
9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W
9/27 12Z: 77.3W
9/28 0Z: 77.4W
Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon) it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC.
Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22).
————
Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC.
Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run.
* Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W.[/b]
All of the UKMET runs 12Z of 9/23 through 0Z 9/28 run (except 0Z of 9/24, which had no TC) in textual form can be seen ITT. The Icons going back to 0Z on 9/26 are still on Tropical Tidbits:
ICON: The only Icon that I don’t know with 100% certainty is the 18Z of 9/24 because it goes out only 120 and is then moving very slowly NW toward C FL at ~79.0W. But even it is slowing down 100 miles offshore FL, the closest of any ICON to the US, and quite possibly about to make the hook OTS.
UKMET: The two 9/25 runs move to 78.3W. Then the 9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z move to 78.5W, the furthest W runs. All others’ furthest W were 77.1-77.4W. The closest to the US of any UKMET run was 115 miles E of Ft. Lauderdale (0Z 9/25 run).
Furthest W of each UKMET run
9/23 12Z: 77.1W
9/24 0Z: no TC
9/24 12Z: 77.2W
9/25 0Z/12Z: 78.3W
9/26 0Z: 77.3W
9/26 12Z and 9/27 0Z: 78.5W
9/27 12Z: 77.3W
9/28 0Z: 77.4W
Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon) it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC.
Aside: The UKMET (#1) and ICON (#2) were also by far the best with Ian (‘22).
————
Honorable mention for JMA, which had only one run hit the US (NC). But like the UKMET, it was a bit shy early on in showing a TC.
Despite its pretty poor record on the track along with Euro and CMC, an honorable mention is due for the GFS for showing Imelda as far back as one 9/19 run, way earlier than any other model, even though it lost it for a couple of days after that run.
* Imelda’s actual furthest W was 77.3W.[/b]
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