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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

Followup: Today’s EW for weeks 2-4 has significantly more ACE than that of the last 6 runs and is the most active for that 3 week period yet with AN/active each week. Whereas the run from 2 days ago had 40 ACE for 9/15-10/12, this new run has 8+16+13.5+10.5=48. It also shows increased risk to the SE US/Gulf 10/6-12.
 
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