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Pattern Jammin' January

Holy Cow at the Euro just through 240 hours. I'm counting four possible systems just by quick glance at 500mb.
The FV3 is doing the same thing. With the PV lobe so far south, the waves come within days of each other. With all that cold, little snow that falls would melt and we could see snow on top of snow if it verifies. Truly great runs today. Let's see if they hold.
 
Looks like there is not much doubt about the cold coming. GEFS mean continues to increase, and now the models are really starting to fire up the storms. They might be a little farther out than I like, but there is no doubt the signals for winter storms are showing up strong starting a week from now. Lots of positives today for those looking for snow.
 
Holy Cow at the Euro just through 240 hours. I'm counting four possible systems just by quick glance at 500mb.
The FV3 is doing the same thing. With the PV lobe so far south, the waves come within days of each other. With all that cold, little snow that falls would melt and we could see snow on top of snow if it verifies. Truly great runs today. Let's see if they hold.
Looks like there is not much doubt about the cold coming. GEFS mean continues to increase, and now the models are really starting to fire up the storms. They might be a little farther out than I like, but there is no doubt the signals for winter storms are showing up strong starting a week from now. Lots of positives today for those looking for snow.
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P.S. I know, I know, this is banter....
 
Likely gonna be some strong winds with these storms, over 1000jkg of sbcape, storm organization and a decently moist cloud layer will likely produce a few decent water loaded downdrafts and a couple of spin ups tommorow in the southern gulf coast states
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Likely gonna be some strong winds with these storms, over 1000jkg of sbcape, storm organization and a decently moist cloud layer will likely produce a few decent water loaded downdrafts and a couple of spin ups tommorow in the southern gulf coast states
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The Euro has some pretty stout gusts as well as the system moves through.
 
Kinda surprised about the lack of talk about severe weather tommorow, a slight risk is concerning and it covers a decent amount of area
Isn't going to take a lot to force these 925s down. Its interesting that 2014 is mentioned as a top analog and we had a big wind event on 1/11 that had an 86 mph gust at RDU. That event started the step down to about 4-5 weeks of glory
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Speaking of wind, I will never forget that sting jet from Michael, can literally hear the roar above your head, even during the breaks, something I’m never going to forget and those wind chills sunday night will be brutal from those wind gusts
 
Is 2014 the same year. 1.6 inches of snow caused major problems for Atlanta. Complete gridlock. If so I could see it happening again if the next weekend snow works out


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A word to the wise, if a ridge like this goes up over the Bering Straits and Alaska in the extended, another massive PV lobe will drop into Canada and towards the US at the beginning of February and lead to yet another monster arctic outbreak after the one that's already being sniffed out before month's end.

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Yes. I still think Fab Feb is on. Late Jan pattern change to colder seems likely. Storms may take a while, but I do think we get there though. Worst case the storms miss a little north but spin up some nice cold on the backside.

I do think there’s really no better timing for this change. Analogs say Feb had the best pattern for weak and moderate ninos, and since it takes 20ish days for tangible SSW impacts, there’s no better way to head into a climo-favored month for cold and stormy than the events unfolding now.

In any event, winter returns.


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From Jan 5th... don’t say the winter cancel crowd wasn’t warned! It’s funny to go back and read the thread, we’ve all been through quite a lot.

In all seriousness, I can’t be more excited about what I’m seeing. Everything is falling together pretty nicely.


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