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Tropical TS Isaias

GaWx said:
Thanks. Good post. For ATL specifically, I’m not presuming it won’t have as big an impact as Opal. But I’m giving it low odds that it will be as bad. We know Opal was still a high end TS (almost still a H) when it went by in N AL due to a combo of a MH at landfall and extremely rapid motion inland (like Helene), I don’t expect this one to be that strong.
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Oh, I agree the odds are low. Something on the order of 10% or so. For the worst case to be realized, it requires the storm to undergo far more intensification than predicted. I'm always wary of RI with Gulf canes unless conditions are hostile, though.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I wonder if this could be as bad as Opal in 1995. Major damage in Georgia from that storm.
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I was in my 1st year of college at Auburn so of course we threw a huge party for Opal lol. A tree landed on one of my roommates. He lived but we had to call his mom and tell her we didn't know his condition. That was an epic storm.
 
The storm with the name that can't be pronounced is getting its act together quickly. If it can continue to fight off the shear I believe it may reach borderline Cat 2 or 3 before landfall. The cloud towers look like they are beginning to wrap around the center and the center is becoming more well defined. It looks like the streak of at least one hurricane in the Atlantic/Gulf basins every year since 1914 is a sure bet to continue.
 
988 MB sonde.

Despite the pressure falls, it remains a TS, and I think it's unlikely the NHC will upgrade it to a hurricane at 11 PM since recon hasn't found winds to support it...so far.
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982 mb
URNT15 KNHC 080255
AF301 0509A ISAIAS HDOB 31 20261008
024630 2252N 09147W 6936 03076 9839 +156 +097 200032 047 /// /// 03
024700 2253N 09149W 6945 03056 9840 +149 +106 195017 024 /// /// 03
024730 2253N 09151W 6935 03065 9837 +150 +101 208012 018 /// /// 03
024800 2254N 09152W 6941 03055 9839 +146 +095 243001 006 /// /// 03
024830 2256N 09153W 6941 03056 9847 +139 +095 078008 009 /// /// 03
024900 2257N 09152W 6939 03060 9852 +133 +109 140007 008 /// /// 03
024930 2257N 09150W 6942 03059 9829 +157 +092 165004 008 /// /// 03
025000 2255N 09150W 6939 03060 9824 +160 +098 195006 009 /// /// 03
025030 2254N 09152W 6944 03054 9839 +148 +095 311004 006 /// /// 03
025100 2253N 09153W 6945 03057 9849 +141 +096 313014 019 /// /// 03
025130 2252N 09154W 6943 03060 9848 +144 +094 302028 031 /// /// 03
025200 2250N 09156W 6940 03071 9848 +149 +094 312040 042 /// /// 03
025230 2250N 09157W 6935 03074 9852 +142 +099 325046 047 /// /// 03
025300 2250N 09159W 6939 03071 9844 +155 +086 331055 057 /// /// 03
025330 2250N 09201W 6938 03078 9862 +143 +097 329054 056 /// /// 03
025400 2251N 09202W 6944 03078 9892 +123 +120 333052 055 /// /// 03
025430 2251N 09203W 6940 03099 9901 +127 +111 340047 054 /// /// 03
025500 2252N 09204W 6940 03098 9908 +124 +124 351038 046 /// /// 03
025530 2254N 09205W 6947 03096 9908 +130 +113 355037 042 /// /// 03
025600 2255N 09206W 6948 03101 9919 +127 +094 357032 033 /// /// 03
 
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