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Pattern April Oven

BrickTamland said:
I feel like we're going to end up paying for this lack of rain with a lot of flooding sometime down the road
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That’s a pretty vague statement! Of course we will be wet, some point down the road. I don’t think this is a 2016 or 2018 type of deal. At some point yes, we will have more precip. It comes in cycles!
 
So I posted a few days ago about how we’re skipping severe weather season this year.. we’re skipping the rain season this year too huh ?

I won’t lie it’s ironic I went camping in blue ridge GA Friday through today and Saturday we got 3 pop up storms before the main line at night which kinda fudged things up some. Not complaining .. but what a weird season
 
Until the ridge stops centering in the gulf and sending the axis northward through the region the pattern sucks. Classic drought/heat pattern with the only the fringes getting into realistic rain chances. Maybe the CAD zones get saved by a wedge at times but it would be short lived. Phase 8 MJO would pull us out of this, models go there but they havent really reflected that in their 500mb pattern forecasts
 
SD said:
Until the ridge stops centering in the gulf and sending the axis northward through the region the pattern sucks. Classic drought/heat pattern with the only the fringes getting into realistic rain chances. Maybe the CAD zones get saved by a wedge at times but it would be short lived. Phase 8 MJO would pull us out of this, models go there but they havent really reflected that in their 500mb pattern forecasts
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That look at 500mb on the Euro/Euro AI is disgusting.
 
Got a total QPF of 1.53" at home yesterday evening into early morning. Saw a line of thunderstorms to the west, but that weakened into more moderate showers as it got here which was pathetic. Doesn't look like much if any precip anytime soon, drought looks likely to continue
 
bleak but at least it means 80/60 instead of 97/77. wouldn't be shocked to see severe/nw flow events agitate around the ridge periphery
 
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From the things don't work the way they used to chronicle, this pattern was once a hail printer on the wedge front, now it does something in Va, might hail idk but around here it's a brief NE breeze and some altostratus ec-aifs_mslp_pcpn_us_45.png
 
Arcc said:
It's official, RIP Spring Severe Season 2026...
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Yeah if we follow the trend here of hyped up stuff it will definitely fall apart

I mean technically I remember a lot of hype about last Friday too at one point and it wasnt anything besides one cell with some ef0s and ef1s
 
Machine-learning model runs have full-on early summer temps towards the end for the SE US. Hopefully it happens and that the warmth is a sign of things to come:

Screenshot-2026-04-07-at-8-31-59-AM.png
 
Would figure we get some frost advisories tonight. My point and click has two lows in the mid to upper 30s coming up over the next two mornings.
 
you know its a dry spring when the dandelions can only manage to get a few inches tall lol, cant even get them with the mower setting I have now.
 
Models keep the wind going outside of the heart of the wedge that might help keep a lot of folks from upper 20s to near freezing tonight, nw piedmont and a good part of VA seems more ripe. Tomorrow night has a better chance of frost for a bigger area as winds back off but dews and thicknesses are rebounding a bit
 
NWS RAH not biting on a frost advisory with low DPs and some wind negating favorable temps.

Tonight: With the strong CAA, low-level thicknesses dropping to the
1300-1310 m range, and mostly clear skies, lows are forecast in the
lower-to-mid-30s across the far northern Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain and 37-41 degrees elsewhere. However, breezy
conditions will continue given a fairly strong pressure gradient
from the high to our north, and model soundings indicate there could
even be some brief gusts at times. Given this and dewpoints falling
into the upper teens to mid 20s, the chance for frost looks low
enough to preclude issuing a Frost Advisory for tonight. If any
patchy frost were to occur it would likely be along and north of I-
85. However, even in the absence of frost, may still harm
sensitive/unprotected vegetation.
 
Tomorrow morning will probably be the coldest in this cool snap for this region and likely the coldest morning until fall. We may still have enough of a breeze to keep frost at bay but there may be some freeze concerns
 
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