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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

18z gfs vs 18z nam lol
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Storm5 said:
18z gfs is dry as a bone for most . Looks nothing like the 18z nam which isn't a surprise given the differences at H5

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Yea not NAM at H5 but you can see it digging further SW than it's 12z run. gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend.gif
 
Wait. Didn't the Euro take a major step toward what the GFS has been showing?

Maybe that's a blip, but still.
 
deltadog03 said:
I must say the changes at H5 are pretty significant this run of the GFS...IF** it can slow down more and dig back further SW, then we should see or could see a EURO hit from yesterday.
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Last 3-4 runs at 500mb it has trended farther SW with the PV and backside energy a little stronger as well just need to keep seeing this trend continue in the future then I think we are good... Was not far off from the NAM in the upper levels
 
Anyone around the midlands of SC; this is quite a bad change if you're looking for snow:

12z EPS members/snowfall:

KCAE_2018011312_eps_snow_240.png
 
Can someone point me toward upper air maps for Feb 24 2015

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Xtreme Weather said:
Last 3-4 runs at 500mb it has trended farther SW with the PV and backside energy a little stronger as well just need to keep seeing this trend continue in the future then I think we are good... Was not far off from the NAM in the upper levels
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Agreed for sure!
 
Mr. Grinch said:
Well poop. I was looking for a more similar upper air look to what we have upcoming

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LMAO yup it's not easy trying to find similar setups or past events to correlate with possible upcoming wintry threat esp in our neck of the woods...never easy to figure out these wintry events and if you think you have then a subtle change can cause a train wreck in both good and bad ways. But I love trying!
 
Storm5 said:
Kbmx still talking 1-2 inches area wide in their latest forecast discussion from just a minute ago. Great write up . Someone needs to find Matt Grantham and get him over here .

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Same only updated current weather not long range disco... I don't know why they have just about stopped updating long range in the evening
 
Storm5 said:
Kbmx still talking 1-2 inches area wide in their latest forecast discussion from just a minute ago. Great write up . Someone needs to find Matt Grantham and get him over here .

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I found him on Facebook. I sent him a message on messenger. Hopefully he will respond.
 
Yeah y'all are correct. Not sure how they do their long range discussions . Its very inconsistent

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I had hope this might be similar to 1/28/14, just a little drier, but alas...

There's still time though for North Carolina, and parts of Tennessee will still do good with the clipper part of it, but for most, we're relying on a prayer.
 
whatalife said:
Not even sure how much I trust any of the ensembles.


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Maybe someone can correct me if wrong, but I think iirc the ensembles really didn't do that well with the last even either compared to high res short range 3k NAM and RGEM... ensembles are ran at same resolution as the Global runs right?
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Maybe someone can correct me if wrong, but I think iirc the ensembles really didn't do that well with the last even either compared to high res short range 3k NAM and RGEM... ensembles are ran at same resolution as the Global runs right?
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I think the ensembles are lower resolution than the Global models.
 
Storm5 said:
Oh well that's why lol https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDBMX&e=201801132327

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BMX did update HWO... Thinking inch or less but may need spotter activation LoL only in the South... But I understand why to though

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
430 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-141330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
430 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

A cold airmass will settle into the region this weekend. Temperatures
Sunday morning could briefly fall to near 15 degrees in localized
cold spots across the North.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

After a cold start, temperatures will warm out of the teens across
the north by 9AM Sunday morning.

A cold front will bring a new surge of arctic air on Tuesday, along
with a chance of snow along and behind the front. Although uncertainty
exists on most likely areas for snowfall, accumulations are expected
to be less than one inch. The cold air mass will result in temperatures
falling into the teens Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Wind chill
values are forecast to reach the single digits late Tuesday night and
into Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
required on Tuesday.
 
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