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Wintry Jan 23-27 Winter Storm Obs

Something to monitor that I am not sure if I buy quite yet is HRRR soundings staying saturated and subzero C in the low levels after the big line comes through this evening. I suppose if it’s removed from the actual front/CAA from the NW enough you could squeeze out a few more hours of -ZR
 
Bigedd09 said:
All night. Sometimes I wonder if the lake dissipates the moisture
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I said this last night. I live right by the lake and it happens too often to be a coincidence I think. It’s a massive lake. Not out of question it causes that.
 
rburrel2 said:
There’s some snow type qualities to the sleet I’m getting here. Definitely more powdery than your typical sleet. I’m about to investigate with a flashlight. It’s absolutely hammering here. Approaching an inch on the ground and 21.8/20.6.
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Same here we are right at an inch of sleet but it's super fine..maybe snow mixing in.
23 degrees and everything is covered.
 
For the Triad, future radar looks like this steady precipitation will continue through around noon. Hopefully we can keep it mostly sleet. Then I imagine freezing drizzle before the heavy squall line comes through around 5:00. The NWS Raleigh mentions that most of its area can rise above freezing for a few hours. Long way to go to get there.
 
SimeonNC said:
Is it safe to say that the Piedmont of NC might be out of the woods in the terms of apocalyptic ZR amounts?

I mean GSP dropped it's ZR accretion forecast so that must be mean something.
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I think so. The local news are really stepping down on totals too.

Keith Monday on channel 9 just said 1/4” or less for Charlotte proper and south.
 
SimeonNC said:
Is it safe to say that the Piedmont of NC might be out of the woods in the terms of apocalyptic ZR amounts?

I mean GSP dropped it's ZR accretion forecast so that must be mean something.
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All depends how long we hold into the sleet, we still have another 8 hours of precip to go
 
Northeast Athens, Ga here... looks like 1/2" of sleet and/or snow on my porch. I don't see any ice but I haven't been outside yet. I did see something drip off my table but no icicles. Temp says 27 on wunderground. Roads in town are apparently bad. I've gotten some alerts saying don't drive.
 
31 and a very thin glaze on elevated surfaces here this morning, which is a bit of a surprise. According to the 0Z NAM last night, verbatim, we should be at 42F right now. Is an 11 degree bust on a 12 hour forecast bad?
6Z finally seemed to catch onto the cold hanging on longer and says we should be at 35F.

FWIW, GFS, HRRR and 3k NAM performed much better on temperatures here at the "boundary”, but nothing I’ve seen had us below freezing at the surface at this hour.
 
based on the HRRR we will get 12 more hours of precip and if the moisture is the low levels is real, we could ring out a few additional hours of light ZR or freezing drizzle even after that. It’s already mostly freezing rain here now so we will see how it accumulates
 
Honeygrl said:
Northeast Athens, Ga here... looks like 1/2" of sleet and/or snow on my porch. I don't see any ice but I haven't been outside yet. I did see something drip off my table but no icicles. Temp says 27 on wunderground. Roads in town are apparently bad. I've gotten some alerts saying don't drive.
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Yea Commerce here and roads are bad. I’m a store manager in Hull and waiting on my team to start letting me know how it is there


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