rburrel2
Member
We’re gonna wind up right where the weathernext model has been for a few days. Shocker
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This was interesting from RAH this morning. Goes along with what Webber previously stated:
*****cut from overnight discussion******
"....as those warm nose temperatures increase well above values to
completely melt any snow/ice nuclei falling through it. Despite that
complete melting, underlying cold nose temperatures are forecast to
be atypically cold (~minus 10C) and sufficiently so to yield
additional ice nucleation in the lowest couple of thousand ft AGL;
and that may allow for periods of continued snow and sleet
production, with crystal habits of the former that would favor
columns/prisms/needles that would not accumulate very efficiently,
particularly if accompanied by freezing rain as expected."
********************
That may also take some of QPF away from freezing rain.
*****cut from overnight discussion******
"....as those warm nose temperatures increase well above values to
completely melt any snow/ice nuclei falling through it. Despite that
complete melting, underlying cold nose temperatures are forecast to
be atypically cold (~minus 10C) and sufficiently so to yield
additional ice nucleation in the lowest couple of thousand ft AGL;
and that may allow for periods of continued snow and sleet
production, with crystal habits of the former that would favor
columns/prisms/needles that would not accumulate very efficiently,
particularly if accompanied by freezing rain as expected."
********************
That may also take some of QPF away from freezing rain.
rburrel2
Member
This is how you get a 100 year ice storm.
Hello, waiter? Yes, my lobster is too buttery and my steak is too juicy!
It seems like the OP Euro came in warmer for most areas. It is really struggling with this CAD.
iGRXY
Member
The only reason they could leave it as a winter storm warning is because of the sleet component? But I’d think this overshadows that by a lot
Does anybody have the QPF total for the 6z euro OP?
rburrel2
Member
packfan98
Moderator
There’s your ice storm warning.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
FWIW GSP went up on Snow / Sleet Totals for Iredell / Lincoln / Catawba overnight
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Model consensus ZR forecast is going in the right direction here
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Picking up on a lot of this being sleet I believe.
Can you show this be further toward the ATL area. I see Gainesville, GA had an increase.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Is this only because of colder temps aloft, or is this because of declining QPF
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the same cannot be said in NE Georgia
In most strong cad events, that’s often where the really nasty ice is
Was just looking at that…by far the best model for this event. I think we have a new king.
AIFS vs Google from Tuesday 12z run
NCSNOW
Member
Soundings off 6z Nam Greensboro:
Hour:
36 = snow starts
39 = sleet @ 23 degrees surface
45 = still sleeting / surface has dropped to 19 degrees
57 = * Change to freezing Rain / surface temp 23 degrees:
Has precipitated .6 up to this point:
so we know that .6 of total qpf off 6z Nam at this point is 2% snow & 98% SLEET !
67 = Freezing Rain is ending/ stops here / surface temp 30-31 degrees: .4 of total qpf has fallen as freezing Rain
Summary: The 6Z Nam is the driest/ least qpf model out there, by several tenths of an inch. It handles thermals/ warm noses the best. If we take it at face value, then it's the least impactful model of all the models/ ensembles etc. The softest/ at a minimum what we can expect at Greensboro off the Nam is 2-3.75 sleet and snow accumulation with roughly a half inch of freezing rain accrued on everything.
This shows that if it's a hair tick to dry. And I'd give caution, it most likely is. Because that's been a handicap with it's new upgrade that I've noticed. Probably gonna spell big trouble just to the south/ east and especially southwest of here with Ice accrual. You go down toward Charlotte and all points in between, you'd be getting more freezing rain over sleet the further out you go. plus all models get wetter the further southwest you head. Start approaching / surpassing .70 Freezing rain with our surface temps, gonna be a lot of power outages, So be prepared.
Hour:
36 = snow starts
39 = sleet @ 23 degrees surface
45 = still sleeting / surface has dropped to 19 degrees
57 = * Change to freezing Rain / surface temp 23 degrees:
Has precipitated .6 up to this point:
so we know that .6 of total qpf off 6z Nam at this point is 2% snow & 98% SLEET !
67 = Freezing Rain is ending/ stops here / surface temp 30-31 degrees: .4 of total qpf has fallen as freezing Rain
Summary: The 6Z Nam is the driest/ least qpf model out there, by several tenths of an inch. It handles thermals/ warm noses the best. If we take it at face value, then it's the least impactful model of all the models/ ensembles etc. The softest/ at a minimum what we can expect at Greensboro off the Nam is 2-3.75 sleet and snow accumulation with roughly a half inch of freezing rain accrued on everything.
This shows that if it's a hair tick to dry. And I'd give caution, it most likely is. Because that's been a handicap with it's new upgrade that I've noticed. Probably gonna spell big trouble just to the south/ east and especially southwest of here with Ice accrual. You go down toward Charlotte and all points in between, you'd be getting more freezing rain over sleet the further out you go. plus all models get wetter the further southwest you head. Start approaching / surpassing .70 Freezing rain with our surface temps, gonna be a lot of power outages, So be prepared.
iGRXY
Member
Those are still way under what actual will be. At least in the upstate
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NCSNOW
Member
we gotta get our flat vs radial straight on all these maps and graphics
They also added heavy sleet to the forecast grids down my way
Tsappfrog20
Member
Well the NWS Raleigh increased their totals from yesterday.
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For Raleigh Google has about 0.5-0.6” precip in very cold temps for the overrunning part. Another .2” comes after as probably freezing rain. It’s a cold model…hoping the initial overrunning is half sleet and half frzn. Would be a nice event but not catastrophic, I hope. Roads would be an ice skating rink and would still be power outages, just not worst case
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This probably has to do with CAMs being weighted more than the NBM now and the higher resolution of the CAMs being able to sniff out the low level cold nose better than the globals
rburrel2
Member
Man, weathernext is super cold on the edges. Look at Atlanta and Columbia Sunday morning.
BHS1975
Member
HRRR saying no snow,Well the NWS Raleigh increased their totals from yesterday.
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Nerman
Member
NE GA and up your way through NC looks like ground zero for FZRA. The further NE of Atlanta you get the worse it looks. I'm preparing for the worst.
Some models are showing back-end rain as the precip moves out. Our only hope may be that it occurs and washes some out.
packfan98
Moderator
The snow map includes sleet accumulation too. Looks reasonable to me.
This may sound like hopiun but could this also be what Mitch was talking about yesterday when he said that those who think or thought they were getting a catastrophic ice storm could instead be looking at a raging sleet storm? Could this be a reflection of that? Or would we need to see more trends to reflect that?
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Latest (long range at 9z) RAP is very interesting. Gives me all sleet (and little snow) through hour 51. It is very dry to the SW from Charlotte to Atlanta. But still has more QPF to come in later. ***man, these models are all over the place for QPF
I think their snow accums include sleet and looking at trends and all model output, I highly doubt that .8 ice accumulation verifies in Roanoke Rapids. I'm curious what they see to continue to have an ice bullseye in corridor NE of Raleigh. Which btw these totals did come down some from yesterday and shifted NW some.Well the NWS Raleigh increased their totals from yesterday.
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To me it looks like some of the models are trying to go with a big tongue of moisture that shoots out ahead of what now looks like a strong frontal passage. That’s why there is a dryer gap south of that tongue. Then you get the influx of moisture as the front starts to push through late Sunday. Not sure if it is true though.
Would expect a lot of freezing drizzle even in the areas that are showing up in the dry slots
rburrel2
Member
If you want more precip Sunday morning, then you want more convection to fire up tomorrow morning along the Texas gulf coast. Ai models don’t have any, nam 3k , rap doesn’t have any… the rgem, euro, gfs, fv3 have mega convection that develops there and races east.
Hrrr has some… sort of a blend.
Hrrr has some… sort of a blend.
Tsappfrog20
Member
I’m sure that they’re including that sleet in that total as well
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Brent9
Member
GSP expanded and increased the high end amount of ice, would be absolute devastatingrburrel2
Member
Check out the differences in gulf convection between the euro and nam3k.
NCSNOW
Member
6Z RDPS for Greensboro:
Matches Nam in that flakes onset, probably like 15 minutes, but straight to sleet. Colder at the surface. Nam has us in upper teens while precipitating. RDPS has us at 16 degrees and sleeting at its coldest point hour 48.
Hour 57: precip has changed to Freezing Rain with a surface temp at a toasty 20 degrees: So far 1.0 qpf has occurred and been in the form of sleet. easily 3-4 inches of sleet has accumulated by this point. Probably been getting close to 4:1 sleet ratios up to this point as it is still only 20 degrees at the surface.
at hour 72 Precip /freezing rain is ending with a surface temp of 28 degrees: So far another .9 qpf has fallen in the form of freezing rain.
Summary: This would be ferocious if things play out like the RDPS just did. The qpf that falls as freezing rain is .9 compared to the .4 as freezing rain off the 6Z Nam. Thats double the impact + weight wise on everything, places you in the worst category there is for frzng rain ice accrual.
Matches Nam in that flakes onset, probably like 15 minutes, but straight to sleet. Colder at the surface. Nam has us in upper teens while precipitating. RDPS has us at 16 degrees and sleeting at its coldest point hour 48.
Hour 57: precip has changed to Freezing Rain with a surface temp at a toasty 20 degrees: So far 1.0 qpf has occurred and been in the form of sleet. easily 3-4 inches of sleet has accumulated by this point. Probably been getting close to 4:1 sleet ratios up to this point as it is still only 20 degrees at the surface.
at hour 72 Precip /freezing rain is ending with a surface temp of 28 degrees: So far another .9 qpf has fallen in the form of freezing rain.
Summary: This would be ferocious if things play out like the RDPS just did. The qpf that falls as freezing rain is .9 compared to the .4 as freezing rain off the 6Z Nam. Thats double the impact + weight wise on everything, places you in the worst category there is for frzng rain ice accrual.
When two models are that far apart on accumulated ice totals I would probably average these numbers and use that as a best guess for what might happen - .9 + .4 = .13/2 = .65 inches. I hope the NAM is right about these totals.
jaymackd3
Member
Is there any realistic chance that the warm nose doesn’t get as far North as modeled and places like HSV get more ice/sleet rather than rain?