MichaelJ
Member
The King has spoken and he is cursing us while doing it. As I feared, the modeled high strength was way off
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
AI warmer at the surface by just a touch. The 18Z EURO may be too extreme a jump.
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Storm5
Member
These shifts are all within the ensemble envelopes. People focus in the ones that give their area the most and ignore solutions like we've seen today
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
After recon's data tomorrow comes in for the 23rd 12z runs. I would expect major changes. What type of changes? Not exactly sure, only time will tell.
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Lets look at EPS before declaring this Euro op run on to something. Not only does it have a 1041 high in Pennsylvania, but also a 1042 High in Wisconsin. Could not draw a better map for a SE snowstorm
Not freaking out yet over the 18z's. We all will know IF there is a real trend on the 0z suite of models when newer data is ingested. Otherwise, I need more firewood this weekend than I thought! Horrible ice storm.
MichaelJ
Member
0Z runs will likely start coalescing around the EURO and UKMET now, hate it but looks imminent
It's a shame, but we just refuse to remember that almost every big "this time it's different" super high pressure super duper cold press 99% of the time ends up far less substantial and much farther north than it looked 5-7 days out.
This time it's the Baja low that never ejects expect this once. Sometimes, it's lack of blocking. Sometimes it's the early phase. But it's a real thing unless you have a super strong block in SE Canada.
This time it's the Baja low that never ejects expect this once. Sometimes, it's lack of blocking. Sometimes it's the early phase. But it's a real thing unless you have a super strong block in SE Canada.
EPS moved north and amped as well, once again, going to be a very icy solution. Next 4 cycles could either kill it or lock in on a rather bad ice storm
If it's 30 at this point with heavy precip., most of the freezing rain will run off. Not cold enough to flash freeze. I think we would continue to get a cold surface wind from the north (strong CAD), so we might not jump above freezing.Hopefully the high pressure weakens further and we warm into the 30’s, it’s close…would be better than a terrible ice storm.
And would be hilarious if we spent all this time tracking another cold rain
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This is the old day 5 model curse where things trend in a bad direction.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think the euro is just way overdone with how wide the ZR swath is gonna be.
Usually what ends up verifying is more like what the gfs shows with a wide area of sleet and a narrower band of truly nasty ZR.
Either way, that zr band is going to be over Roanoke by 18z tomorrow with the High pressure centered over Toronto.
Btownheel
Member
Op triple phased, which is incredibly hard to pull off. That’s why it jumped so hard. Obviously trend is pushing mixing north but I wouldn’t put a ton of faith in that one run yet.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 18z suite shows you how important the speed of that Baja low is to this winter storm in the Carolinas and Georgia especially.
A faster Baja low doesn’t give as much time for the CAD to settle in and you get warmer temps at precip onset and vis versa.
A faster Baja low doesn’t give as much time for the CAD to settle in and you get warmer temps at precip onset and vis versa.
Not the mama
Member
So is the triple phasing why it popped so much warmer? Is that a rare/unlikely thing to occur?
Completely discounting an OP run in favor of ensembles is how you end in heartbreak. Been there, done that, look and take account of everything.
TigerSnow
Member
I’ve asked this before and I will again, is it entirely possible for this thing to blank the Carolina’s outside of the mountains? Can it speed up enough to give us all cold rain?
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I feel like it could be a little over progressed on models, especially given when you look at how they initiate. Seems to be a western tick on initiation but I haven't looked completely into it to see for certain.
Latest GFS has RDU in the negatives Tuesday morning, and according to the GFS we wont be going above freezing at ALL next week, with a peak of 32F high on Wednesday. Probably not accurate, but an extremely alarming signal.
SnowNiner
Member
Well I guess the only hope for us is the climatology of that low being very difficult to eject holds true. It’s beyond ironic that it actually coming out is killing our winter storm. Of course it is.
Blips and hiccups do happen even on the euro
I think a lot needs to go right for this system to be that amplified, both the Baja low and the shortwave diving from Montana need to cooperate
Definitely a run that makes your heart sink but we take a few of these with every storm
I think a lot needs to go right for this system to be that amplified, both the Baja low and the shortwave diving from Montana need to cooperate
Definitely a run that makes your heart sink but we take a few of these with every storm
JWaterman
Member
I’m going to attempt to be the light in all the darkness. With that being said, did we all truly think this was going to go perfectly with every single model run until the show started? Probably not. Yeah, I’m down in the dumps bad but we all know 1 model run doesn’t define the entire story. I’m trying to remain optimistic and hopeful. Let’s bounce back on the 00z!!!
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SnowmasterATL
Member
Because, of past experiences of HP. they are always model very strong on to weekend by 5 to 10 mb. I would be surprise if the HP really is a 1035 to 1038 mb, and with a more ramped up storm it especially relieve ATL but ice down the Carolinas. The UKmet was on to something. I prefer the GFS solution or just cold rain.
Someone get this man a cold beer!
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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Note to self: review BAMWX Sunday and Monday video analysis. This is exactly what Michael Clark laid out that would happen. We need to avoid a severe ice storm at all costs
The problem is it’s 3 days out these models should be locking in. Matter of fact Chris Justus even said by Wednesday we should pretty much know what direction we are headed.
SnowmasterATL
Member
its the overall trend. Yes, the EURO is more progressive but Also, the GFS went north also but alot of sleet.
i wanted to say this but was scared (and still am) that it was personal weenie bias talking. Still, hard to ignore everything in this GIF trending poorly (aside from CAD sig getting a smidge stronger)
Makeitsnow
Member
Even if you buy the 18z euro, based on a lot of past experience the euro often warms the surface in these situations much too fast. Anyone around atlanta getting their hopes up of being saved from devastating ice shouldn't.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Whats your thoughts on the location trend of the area of snow on these new runs
SnowmasterATL
Member
Makeitsnow, it's the trend and it's AI component was showing the same thing. I do agree it warms the surface to fast. we shall see but I am liking where this is heading for ATL right now.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Think about it this way. That was a triple phaser. I believe that is the worse case. So, this thing can't jump any farther north unless the high is weaker.
TigerSnow
Member
The high can definitely be weaker. It usually is in these situations, unfortunately.
GFS v/s Euro day 4...the difference between foot of snow and annoying freezing rain
We just can't handle success very well
Now comparing the ensembles..
EPS v/s AIFS ENS....EPS is on a little island with this but maybe it's leading but the AIFS ENS kind of in between GEFS/EPS.
We just can't handle success very well
Now comparing the ensembles..
EPS v/s AIFS ENS....EPS is on a little island with this but maybe it's leading but the AIFS ENS kind of in between GEFS/EPS.
Dude, been doing this for 30 years. I am accounting for Everything. Everyone is jumping off the cliff about one model run
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BHS1975
Member
Yeah really. When was the last triple phaser? 98 right?
