baja low is stronger and further west and all changes seem to be downstream from that
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
AIFS continues to fall in line on the high pressure strength in Canada as well
wow
Member
That's what I call a cave
Stormlover
Member
NCSNOW
Member
snow accum went up in NC: All frozen with temps in low to mid 20s
COMPARED to is 6z
Fountainguy97
Member
Good trend! Few more ticks and it probably won't grab the entire ULL.
Although Euro AI is much stronger with the CAD, however, so a lot more sleet there compared to prior runs with more ice.
Great run!
Horrible run!
I love this time of year.
Horrible run!
I love this time of year.
NWG_WX14
Member
Definitely a step in the right direction
I’m telling you. Now if we just had the 12z FV3 on deck
buckinbronco
Member
Euro AI looks to be an ice storm for NGA
AIFS
06z
12z
Transfer much further south
06z
12z
Transfer much further south
rburrel2
Member
euro going nuclear with the high pressure… whew.
Stormsfury
Member
Where did that Northern Lakes Low Pop up from? That's new
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like slower wave and more dug in TPV this euro run ? Probably a colder/snowier run
NCSNOW
Member
Euro op has baja at 3 counteur closed. At 0z it was only 2 contour and opened up at hour 102. See if it opens up here at hour 90
euro @hr69 is slightly west with the baja low... same strength. everything else relatively unchanged. i'd wager this would be a 20-40 mile shift south with the main precip axis, snow, cold, transition zones, etc
NCSNOW
Member
Not as connected to that energy in NW, want get kicked out as quick, me thinks
Maybe that piece of high pressure in western Canada is sort of cutting that energy over the dakotas in half?
wow
Member
Unusual that it's the Euro that's progressive with the Baja low and the GFS is hanging it back. Euro has always been notorious for hanging it back.
Stormsfury
Member
Pretty good separation and don't see a kicker to grab it out just yet
Decently improved cold press on the atari euro maps at F114
NCSNOW
Member
Oh yea, she's gonna stay put, if im betting. digging in heels at hour 72. still 3 contour closed off
smidge futher west than gfs
not coming out
smidge futher west than gfs
not coming out
We definitely got to have a colder run about to show up.
rburrel2
Member
The trend on the euro and euro ai here is getting the high pressure in an absolute ideal CAD postion when the storm hits… this really is gonna be epic in terms of the ice and sleet.
Another reason you cannot trust it yet at this juncture. Way too much run to run inconsistency.
Less Baja influence and more cold press = drier and later precip onset east of Texas so far
wow
Member
Gonna be weaker with the sfc low and more W-E precip stripe. Bring it on in...
Cold press improved and now the precip ramping up later:
NCSNOW
Member
GFS at hr 84
Euro hr 84
Euro hr 84
Holy smokes!
my god it’s worse 
wow
Member
Euro actually further W with the Baja low than the GFS at 84. Euro has completely caved to the GFS!
Temps in the mid 20s