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Tropical 91L

The 0Z EPS and other ensemble runs still strongly favor either a safe recurve from Conus or it staying weak or dissipating for those that stay further south and go into or near the Caribbean. So, there’s still a long ways to go before this would possibly be considered a significant threat to the Conus. Also, the threat is currently still higher for the NE Caribbean than the Conus due to being closer and considering those members that stay further S.

But Erin did come in 200 miles/3 degrees of longitude further W than forecasted by the NHC and models 4 days earlier. So, that’s something to keep in mind.
 
Gonna be a long 2 weeks of model waffling. I honestly prefer homegrown stuff cause it takes the waiting piece out of it. Can’t remember the last cruiser we had that threatened the US. Maybe Beryl? Before that who knows
 
GFS looks as if it's completely caved to the Euro so far in the 12z run, definitely puts the islands at risk as that range is not in fantasy land.
 
Barely misses PR by the skin of its teeth. then starts strengthIng again.

Trapped and no choice but to head west/NW at best. Shear would help keep in check at this 10 day point of time. But this is A) GFS B) Hour 240
 
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Well, we'll see how the rest of the run ends up, but the 500 map for now tells me this probably rakes the Bahamas and then cruises right into Florida...
 
ULL cutoff is providing shear, thats what is keeping it from getting crazy strength wise. Starts spacing some here on. But again the idea the gfs has these features placed correctly day 10 on is fools gold. Moreso the ULL

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Well, that was a crazy run. It looks as if it almost might get in the Gulf.

12z GEFS seems as if it's caved to the southerly solution if it develops anything as well btw.
 
The jury is still out on 91L and there is plenty of time to watch it to see where it goes. I hope the GFS is onto something with the rainfall totals after making a landfall on the southeast coast. It will be three weeks at the end of this week since the RDU area has seen any significant rainfall and the potential looks bleak for that to happen unless a tropical system changes the equation.
 
12Z:
-Euro: has a TS in the MDR that later weakens to a weak low as it crosses the Lesser Antilles and then goes through Caribbean disorganized/very weak

-UKMET: no TC again/low too weak to be classified a TD
 
The 12Z EPS has one member from 91L hit FL, another headed toward the Gulf, and a couple of others not far from hitting the NE US as they recurve. But overall, that’s still pretty quiet for CONUS. Interestingly, there’s more Conus hits from other systems, mainly homegrown stuff.
 
18z GFS is a little faster but about the same latitude as 12z thru 1201757023755634.png
 
jrips27 said:
PR landfall as a mini-cane this time on the GFS dart throw 🎯View attachment 174763
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Looks like this one is destined to be plagued by dry air and shear. The forecasted environment does not look what I would expect it to look like for a big hurricane of growing intensity as it approaches the EC. It's way out there, so it can change. But it doesn't look great. The upper air pattern has a somewhat concerning look, which, coupled with the seemingly increasingly favored southern track, would be worrisome. But again, that's offset somewhat by the lack of a healthy forecasted environment. Lots to watch over the coming days.
 
We will see if it makes it to the coast, but this run might be a weenie run intensity wise
1757025814540.png
 
Shaggy said:
Which is no more or less believable than the 06z that crushed the east coast.

Ensembles people
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Not quite. The 6z GFS actually did the perfect setup to impact the US. It kept this extremely weak which missed the trough and regressed the SE cut off perfectly to provide ventilation and pull it westward and a perfect anticylone over head to allow it rapidly deepen and help pump the ridge and get it even further westward. All in the near 300 hr range. Possible? Sure, but a deeper system is gone well before then with this look.


1757027800902.png
 
Henry2326 said:
Your the one showing it 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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It’s for entertainment! Everyone on this weather board should know not to trust anything until we get inside of a week.

I’d say check back on Monday unless you’re in the islands
 
Yeah I'm not even giving this time of day right now to believe it's a legit threat. It's too early

I still think it could easily be like Erin and miss too
 
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