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Tropical 91L

The 0Z EPS and other ensemble runs still strongly favor either a safe recurve from Conus or it staying weak or dissipating for those that stay further south and go into or near the Caribbean. So, there’s still a long ways to go before this would possibly be considered a significant threat to the Conus. Also, the threat is currently still higher for the NE Caribbean than the Conus due to being closer and considering those members that stay further S.

But Erin did come in 200 miles/3 degrees of longitude further W than forecasted by the NHC and models 4 days earlier. So, that’s something to keep in mind.
 
Gonna be a long 2 weeks of model waffling. I honestly prefer homegrown stuff cause it takes the waiting piece out of it. Can’t remember the last cruiser we had that threatened the US. Maybe Beryl? Before that who knows
 
Barely misses PR by the skin of its teeth. then starts strengthIng again.

Trapped and no choice but to head west/NW at best. Shear would help keep in check at this 10 day point of time. But this is A) GFS B) Hour 240
 
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Well, that was a crazy run. It looks as if it almost might get in the Gulf.

12z GEFS seems as if it's caved to the southerly solution if it develops anything as well btw.
 
The jury is still out on 91L and there is plenty of time to watch it to see where it goes. I hope the GFS is onto something with the rainfall totals after making a landfall on the southeast coast. It will be three weeks at the end of this week since the RDU area has seen any significant rainfall and the potential looks bleak for that to happen unless a tropical system changes the equation.
 
12Z:
-Euro: has a TS in the MDR that later weakens to a weak low as it crosses the Lesser Antilles and then goes through Caribbean disorganized/very weak

-UKMET: no TC again/low too weak to be classified a TD
 
jrips27 said:
PR landfall as a mini-cane this time on the GFS dart throw 🎯View attachment 174763
Click to expand...
Looks like this one is destined to be plagued by dry air and shear. The forecasted environment does not look what I would expect it to look like for a big hurricane of growing intensity as it approaches the EC. It's way out there, so it can change. But it doesn't look great. The upper air pattern has a somewhat concerning look, which, coupled with the seemingly increasingly favored southern track, would be worrisome. But again, that's offset somewhat by the lack of a healthy forecasted environment. Lots to watch over the coming days.
 
We will see if it makes it to the coast, but this run might be a weenie run intensity wise
1757025814540.png
 
Shaggy said:
Which is no more or less believable than the 06z that crushed the east coast.

Ensembles people
Click to expand...

Not quite. The 6z GFS actually did the perfect setup to impact the US. It kept this extremely weak which missed the trough and regressed the SE cut off perfectly to provide ventilation and pull it westward and a perfect anticylone over head to allow it rapidly deepen and help pump the ridge and get it even further westward. All in the near 300 hr range. Possible? Sure, but a deeper system is gone well before then with this look.


1757027800902.png
 
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