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Observations 4/8/2024 Eclipse

JTR said:
Here ya go with the first eclipse wx forecast request. Have hotel reservations in Batesville AR for next Sunday night, April 7. Taking the grandkids to see the eclipse if the weather/clouds will cooperate. Anyone want to throw out a rough prediction on what the odds are the sky will be clear? Looks kinda iffy to me right now. Don't really want to drive 7 hours and stay overnight if the weather will cause a bust.
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I'm definitely concerned about the active pattern showing up but luckily it's day 8. The GFS was trying to show a lull last night around the eclipse but who knows at this range
 
Texas looking pretty rough on most models IMG_7821.pngIMG_7820.png
 
I'm still hoping it's like the winter when it was supposed to snow a week out and never did 🤣

I mean we do have more totality here in 2045 than anyone does next week but still...
 
Maybe the best Euro run for the Texas to Ohio stretch. Is there hope?!
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Brent said:
Maybe but I will never like if there's a cutoff low over the SW which is being indicated on the GFS. That is a classic unsettled pattern here. Lots of overrunning clouds and moisture usually
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I was reading something on Twitter that says the GFS overdoes cloud cover a lot. Canadian/Euro usually does better. Not sure if it’s true though
 
jrips27 said:
I was reading something on Twitter that says the GFS overdoes cloud cover a lot. Canadian/Euro usually does better. Not sure if it’s true though
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I mean we will see but it's also hard to take an op run seriously at this range. I know most of the professional people here are not very optimistic
 
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0z Canadian ensemble probability of greater than 25% cloud cover IMG_7893.png
 
Been planning on going to Carbondale, Illinois. This would play IMG_7973.png
 
jrips27 said:
That’s the probability of greater than 25% cloud cover
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Yeah I don't think it's totally hopeless for DFW and north yet which is where I want to go. Probably closer to the border is better. I've always been leaning towards Hugo Oklahoma or maybe Paris Texas anyway image_full4.jpg
 
Good thread here and he goes state by state below these
 
Snowlover87 said:
Southern Missouri or Northern Arkansas might be better.
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Yeah I was trying to stay within a few hours of here so I can come back same day but Arkansas around Mena is probably the backup plan. It's too far east in Missouri I think
 
We’re inside 120 hours now. The MO-IL-IN corridor of totality might be the place to be to avoid clouds

This is chance of greater than a quarter of the sky being covered with clouds. Low odds across those 3 states
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Not gonna lie I’m pretty concerned about the high level clouds showing up on the Euro and other guidance. Still planning on Carbondale but hoping for a little luck and just don’t wanna stress about it. As long as it doesn’t completely block the sun then I would be fine with a little thin cirrus

 
Oh if only we had followed climo... Climo said the northeast would suck and the south would be good 🤣

No such luck

I'm seeing posts from people who spent thousands of dollars to go to Texas and can't get their money back (because again climo said that would be the best spot). Yikes

I did just see a Little Rock forecast and he had by far the worst cloud cover in SW Arkansas
 
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Brent said:
Oh if only we had followed climo... Climo said the northeast would suck and the south would be good 🤣

No such luck

I'm seeing posts from people who spent thousands of dollars to go to Texas and can't get their money back (because again climo said that would be the best spot). Yikes

I did just see a Little Rock forecast and he had by far the worst cloud cover in SW Arkansas
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That’s why I could never book something so far in advance that’s dependent on weather
 
jrips27 said:
That’s why I could never book something so far in advance that’s dependent on weather
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Yeah this is why I kept my options up and am staying close to Tulsa because literally even in the last week if you knew what the weather was and looked around everything was either gone or super expensive like I saw a Motel 6 in the path in Arkansas for $500 a night 🤣
 
Brent said:
Yeah this is why I kept my options up and am staying close to Tulsa because literally even in the last week if you knew what the weather was and looked around everything was either gone or super expensive like I saw a Motel 6 in the path in Arkansas for $500 a night 🤣
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I’m sure some moron will pay $500
 
Brent said:
Oh if only we had followed climo... Climo said the northeast would suck and the south would be good 🤣

No such luck

I'm seeing posts from people who spent thousands of dollars to go to Texas and can't get their money back (because again climo said that would be the best spot). Yikes

I did just see a Little Rock forecast and he had by far the worst cloud cover in SW Arkansas
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Yeah, this is why I never considered traveling to see it. It’s just too risky as far away as I am, and last minute travel plans will be way too expensive. You’re in a good spot, though, since you can take a day trip to see it.
 
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