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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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Shawn said:
We don't even know the true strength of it yet. Looking back at the 1060-1070mb fiasco and all.
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Larry never said, but I think that's nearing head exploding pressures. We are probably glad that went on into the trash bin of model runs :) And that would be some dry, dry air, lol. Make your sinuses implode, while your cranium explodes, lol. Not weatherlicious. Meanwhile, after some pretty good rain yesterday, and dripping fog last night, I'm in stout drizzle since noon. Nice and juiced up down here...just waiting on some cold air. Tony
 
1300m said:
I haven't seen anyone mention this, but the UKMET looks like a potential incoming winter storm for at least CAD areas at 144:

MSLP:
ukmet_mslp_conus_144.png


6hr precipitation:
ukmet_6hr_precip_conus_144.png


Euro also has some precipitation (a little more suppressed) with this wave also but squashes it, however I think there could be some potential as early as 12/28 if that wave is sharp enough.
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Would the Ukmet be cold enough in Columbia,SC for wintry weather?
 
Just speaking from a climo standpoint, this New Years storm seems right in CAD regions wheelhouse. Majority of our winter storms come in the first week of January. Plus we have these insane HPs being modeled. What could go wrong? :(
 
The deep snowpack building as we speak in NY, and most likely PA in the next few days, can only help CAD areas to have the cold air bleed down a little stronger! Also, if you want a good CAD event, you need to have the cold entrenched 1st, cold trickling in after precip starts is always tough. Are there a few more fronts coming through after the Christmas everyone? Or is that the airnass we have to count on for the 29th ish event?
 
Torchtember said:
Just speaking from a climo standpoint, this New Years storm seems right in CAD regions wheelhouse. Majority of our winter storms come in the first week of January. Plus we have these insane HPs being modeled. What could go wrong? :(
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A lot could still go wrong but IF CAD is involved, all of upstate SC would probably get hit hard. It would be sleet or freezing rain though. I have saw a million blown forecasts where CAD came into play, and almost all of them more wintry than forecast.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm liking the east to west orientation of the dividing line

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Really curious to see how many members are picking up on something after the New Year...I'm also not sure if Maue's site uses a different algorithm than wxbell for EPS snow and actually removes ice
 
I know the GFS is pretty much trash but what's causing it to go all wacky in the past week? We've seen epic ice storms, snowstorms, severe weather, and heat from the SER on it so what gives?
 
It's not this system, it's the next system after the 2nd system, which is before the main system, which brings us back to the first of several systems with potential to be the next to last system before the next wave of first systems. Sorry, I couldn't resist kicking this damn can. Put in banter if you must. ;):p
 
15Z WPC discussion
"THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES DID NOT IMPROVE THE CLARITY OF THE FORECAST
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THE FLOW OUT OF THE PACIFIC TOWARD THE
WEST COAST (AND/OR ALASKA/HAWAI'I) IS NOTHING SHORT OF A MESS. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLES DIVERGE FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IN THE
SHORT TERM AND TAKE UNTIL ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY TO REALIGN.
PREFERENCE LIES WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES OVERALL WITH MUCH LESS
(OR NO) WEIGHT TO THE 00Z GFS/CANADIAN AFTER MONDAY...
LATER NEXT WEEK, DEGREE OF WESTERN TROUGHING IS IN QUESTION (NOTE
GFS/CANADIAN VS THE ECMWF) OWING TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PACIFIC, WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY HEIGHTS IN THE
EAST RESPOND. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW."
 
RollTide18 said:
I know the GFS is pretty much trash but what's causing it to go all wacky in the past week? We've seen epic ice storms, snowstorms, severe weather, and heat from the SER on it so what gives?
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I posted this earlier but most of the wild swings are in long range. It locked on the Christmas storm Sunday and has not blinked since. I think it will do the same for next week. Just my opinion. Another thing it runs four times a day and goes way out in fantasy land so crazy swings are gonna happen. I'm not saying it's the best . Just not as bad as we think.
 
I see everyone is just jumping off the train with the storm because of a single run off the GFS 18z... lol Jesus.
 
GFS be rolling......
Storm5 said:
Gfs op is on crack and wrong

18z gfs
18z gefs
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maybe the op is just wanting to go with climo Niña pattern at that timeframe? Seems hell bent on that SE ridge, but it's on an island, Crack island!
 
1300m said:
I wonder how many times RDU has had a streak of days with highs in the 30s that long and not received wintry weather?
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Lol yeah, we get that temp regime and we’re cashing in on something wintry. Hardly a way around that.
 
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