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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

06z Gfs says hello to a bit of snow on Christmas day in parts of N. Ga, Central Al.
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6z GFS also has a little snow east of the mountains on Christmas day. I believe this is the first run to show this. It would be wonderful to see!
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The GFS is pitiful, the changes at H5 each run are insane. All it is good for right now is saying there will be a trough in the east and a ridge in the west.
 
Storm5 said:
what happened in 88?? I was too young , would a seasoned member please fill me in on the 88 storm
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Outside of CLT at the time, I had 16" of powder, with temps in the mid teens all day! Finished as light freezing rain, to put a layer of crispy ice on top! Got extremely cold after the storm! Missed about 2 weeks of school
 
On 6z, don't see the 29th event being as far north as shown, with that high pressure up there!
 
Temps on the 6z GEFS looks to stay below normal through the duration of the run once the Christmas front goes through. That has to be our best window of opportunity to score. Climo agrees too.
 
One of the easiest model diagnoses I've ever seen.

All models have been trending more progressive towards gfs for like 6 runs, now the gfs and ecm trended to an earlier bloom with the low. Pretty obvious where the next few runs will lay this.

Esp with data from our low entering the Pacific Northwest
 
Storm5 said:
Extremely low support for the christmas System within the ensembles . In fact the 06z gefs continued the trend of backing way off with its lowest support yet
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You going to post the members for us I actually will not be surprised to see some snow mix in on the backside Christmas afternoon, nothing big of course but a few flakes on Christmas day would be great. Models definitely trending cooler here, most likely transition day....warm morning cold afternoon

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Storm5 said:
06z gefs through christmas . Clear trend away from anything wintry
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Kinda misleading. Yes, the snowfall prediction output isn't showing snow right now and is trending away from snow. The synoptic trend, however, was significantly towards a more progressive earlier bloomer, which if it continues, would lead to a more snowy solution in future runs.
 
Storm5 said:
Through next Saturday
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Much more interested in the 29th timeframe! Punting on the Christmas Day event, except token flakes as precip ends
 
bouncycorn said:
Kinda misleading. Yes, the snowfall prediction output isn't showing snow right now and is trending away from snow. The synoptic trend, however, was significantly towards a more progressive earlier bloomer, which if it continues, would lead to a more snowy solution in future runs.
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Oh I don’t disagree , in fact the 06z gfs does exactly that and was a clear change from 00z.
 
Storm5 said:
Well hot damn the 00z eps keeps trending better and better days 10-15.
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Wasn't days 11-15 looking good 5 days ago!?
 
And now the GFS shows some snow falling here on Christmas. Models are still all over the place. It seems there is good potential after Christmas towards the end of the month for a winter storm here, but the models are so back and forth with actually showing one.
 
Storm5 said:
Through next Saturday
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Am I not seeing this right or is there something funky going on but the images I see or South Central focused and leave out the Carolinas and Georgia it's not a Southeast Ensemble member image.

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Anothw
Storm5 said:
06z gefs through christmas . Clear trend away from anything wintry
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Actually this looks better than last might members lol. OP wasnt that aggressive prob why the members aren't neither, but these members you posted has little more than prev. then again, this could all be a fluke.
 
I really hope this Christmas wintry works out. Im not asking alot, even tho that would be great, im only asking for little white stuff on the ground. Ive never in my 40 years had a white Christmas, just to see snow falling on Christmas would be gold. That would be the best Christmas present that mother nature can offer.
 
metwannabe said:
Am I not seeing this right or is there something funky going on but the images I see or South Central focused and leave out the Carolinas and Georgia it's not a Southeast Ensemble member image.

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Not really, storm lives in Alabama and that is what he is focused on I think
 
Arcc said:
I don't know 11/20 showing snow across AL from the same general setup is pretty high. I don't believe it, but I don't remember it being that many members before.
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I’ll go back and look , but I think previous runs were far more agressive
 
Storm5 said:
Please, just a few days ago the eps was pumping the se ridge and dumping the trough in the west .the current run is much improved. Of course it’s not perfect but it’s much better than dumping the trough out west
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That is true, but compare the runs late last month to what transpired and these runs will make you depressed. We know how block happy the EPS had been and when it's not showing anything it isn't good at all.
 
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