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Wintry Jan 6-7 2022 Winter potential

Nomanslandva said:
Yea, we busted low for highs yesterday but ten busted way high for lows last night. Then today has been too much sun early. ? RAP soundings look ok above the surface but the surface is to cool vs reality. On the other hand dews are to warm on the sounding so we may cool pretty fast?

The 15z rap sounding had .59 total with the last half looking snowy except still maybe a tad warm at the surface. HRRR say we may get a flizzard at the very end. We'll see.

Congrats to TN peeps ?
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In my experience, temperature busts the day before a storm (high or low) have basically no correlation to if the storm temperature will bust high or low. Just something to keep in mind since we usually try to take these things to mean something when they don’t.

Hopefully, Roanoke does as well as possible! I thought you all would’ve got more a few days ago!
 
superjames1992 said:
In my experience, temperature busts the day before a storm (high or low) have basically no correlation to if the storm temperature will bust high or low. Just something to keep in mind since we usually try to take these things to mean something when they don’t.

Hopefully, Roanoke does as well as possible! I thought you all would’ve got more a few days ago!
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Yea, we went from a 9z changeover modeled about a day out to reality of 11:30z. A bunch of rain fell in that period so I guess that's what did it. Fingers crossed for this evening.
 
I have family living in Knoxville and they are not happy right now. They had a little snow mixed with the rain but nothing like they were expecting.



*****************************************************
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tomorrow)

Key Messages:

1. System has sped up and, forcing with it has been under forecasted,
and accumulating snow is much less than previously forecasted.

2. Still expect the coldest temperatures in over a year

Discussion:

No two ways around it this was a busted forecast for much of the
Valley.

Snowfall rates in middle TN and along the Cumberland Plateau
(especially above 2,000 feet) were impressive and right in line
with what we were forecasting. But as the morning continued on, it
seems as though the system continued to speed up past the better
synoptic forcing and jet dynamics. Looks like the better synoptic
forcing is still back in Middle TN into Central Kentucky, and won`t
really move over our area until the late afternoon/evening. This
second quick round of precipitation that we`re seeing behind the
main shield of precipitation is likely a result of this... As a
result the precipitation has been much more patchy than any model or
ensemble (outside of the 5th percentile) was forecasting. But just
this decoupling of the best forcing has made it to where snowfall
occurred, but not at the rate previously forecasted. Will be removing
counties from the advisory generally in the central into the
southern Valley.

Still getting decent snowfall rates along the plateau up into
southwest Virginia, but those amounts will not be as high as
previously forecasted. Same story can be said for the mountains as
well.

Have bumped up the exit of PoPs with this system moving faster than
anticipated, and have pretty much the entire area clear of
precipitation by this evening, outside of some low level moisture
getting caught up on the southern Appalachian mountains.
 
Really concerned about ice. Kinda scary the flash freeze starts right after the buses are on the road. Around 5 to 6am Yadkin-Forsyth Counties.
 
1CA0F68D-A7CE-4338-AC23-1DD85618ECCC.png
What happened to this system? Barely any precipitation
 
The gfs has done better for my area now for the 3rd winter storm in a row since last winter. Even using the higher ratio version it was off by a good bit with the storm. The gfs was almost right on for multiple runs. Not sure if it’s just this area but the gfs seems much better after multiple upgrades over the last few years. Is this correct or just a lucky phase for the gfs in my area?
 
olhausen said:
The gfs has done better for my area now for the 3rd winter storm in a row since last winter. Even using the higher ratio version it was off by a good bit with the storm. The gfs was almost right on for multiple runs. Not sure if it’s just this area but the gfs seems much better after multiple upgrades over the last few years. Is this correct or just a lucky phase for the gfs in my area?
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Definitely for your area. Gfs went way overboard in snow totals in Roanoke the other day and wasn’t correct. Same goes for this system. It’s going to be wrong for this system as well for us.
 
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