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Arctic April

18z gefs has something interesting in the frozen department in its run for TN valley and the mountains. I know folks on here could care less but I'm wanting all the cool I can get before the summer oven bakes
 
Yeah I think so too, plus I can cover if need be but I've seen modeled low 40's turn into upper 30's which verify as mid 30's many times haha.
I am hoping that the cyclonic flow aloft will keep enough energy swinging through that we have clouds/wind to keep the good radiational cooling nights away. Probably a few 58/40 days coming with a stiff W to NW wind and stratocu filled afternoons that might have some sprinkles
 
I am hoping that the cyclonic flow aloft will keep enough energy swinging through that we have clouds/wind to keep the good radiational cooling nights away. Probably a few 58/40 days coming with a stiff W to NW wind and stratocu filled afternoons that might have some sprinkles
Sounds miserable
 
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this may affect hurricane season, but this may aid in more intense mid latitude cyclones including severe setups

Yeah, we've basically had the ideal pattern for warming the Gulf the past week or two, with a subtropical high placed just to the east of the Gulf of Mexico, this allows for increased insolation coupled w/ large-scale warm advection and downwelling (esp in the northern Gulf).
 
The big neg anomalies have mostly vanished.. just seasonably cool for early April. And the SER riffing again. Got to give credit to the atmosphere for pattern consistency this year.
Yep, gfs is trending back to the SER
 
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