• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Ok... so I’ve been in the snow jackpot bullseye every model and run since yesterday... yet FFC and BMX continue to basically dismiss this event... with BMX going 1/2 inch accumulation. Good thing I’m not a forecaster... this is apparently an extremely difficult forecast...probably the 1/2 a degree makes all the difference forecast.
 
An important reminder from NWS BMX's discussion this morning:

"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."

That said, they have added a low confidence for light accumulating snowfall in their HWO.
 
Latest 10% probability map from FFC, valid through 7:00am Saturday morning (remember that this is still an experimental product):
FFC120617.png
 
6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
snod.conus.png
 
FFC forecast has trended away from model consensus. In fact, they've taken snow out of the grids for Atlanta completely. Giving a 20% chance of light rain
They must have seen the 6z GFS? Not a good run for ATL
 
Someone had said the GDPS has a 6z and 18z run as well. Here is the 6Z precip maps, the off hour runs only to 84 hours.
image.gif


image.gif

image.gif

image.gif
 
6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
snod.conus.png
That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
I'm having a hard time getting way into the nw trend idea. I think there will be an larger NW edge to the precip shield but unless this goes full cmc I can't see a huge NW jump in the rn sn line

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
I'm having a hard time getting way into the nw trend idea. I think there will be an larger NW edge to the precip shield but unless this goes full cmc I can't see a huge NW jump in the rn sn line

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Well I hope you're right I was kind of thinking the same thing until I saw the CMC last night and look like to me that you GEFS had shifted somewhat NW. Old habits die hard

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Well I hope you're right I was kind of thinking the same thing until I saw the CMC last night and look like to me that you GEFS had shifted somewhat NW. Old habits die hard

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Yeah I mean we always seem some leaking toward the NW but I can't find a big catalyst to drive it way north at the last second like the January failure. Maybe I'm wishcasting

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top