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Wintry Winter Mischief For Upper SE 3/12/18

olhausen said:
Wow these recent model runs have really got me wondering if accumulating snow is possible here tomorrow night. I bet there's going to be some surprises with this one. Of all my years living here I still haven't got that surprise snow storm. The kind where they are predicting a half inch or maybe one and you end up with 4 or more. It's gotta happen sometime so maybe this is the one. I saw the local news mentioning snow and possibly up to a half an inch in north and northeast Tennessee.
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:D
Good luck!
It sure looks possible ... :p
 
metwannabe said:
Allan Huffman's call map, I would be thrilled to see this verify
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Looks like he just included all of Raleigh just because to me. It's either the whole area or just a little bit I think. Looks too slow for any chance of even a flake here now, so I hope the MA doesn't get anything. Maybe some in NC and TN can.
 
Have heard a lot of talk about the mid atlantic but havent heard anyone mention Kentucky. Kentucky may be the big winners.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Look at the difference between both total precip and total snow on 18z NAM12k and 3k WTH???
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Yep. I've never seen such a discrepancy. The 12k has the system flat and out to sea. The 3k goes up the coast and nails VA on up. Still a lot to iron out with this one. Personally, I think the 3k nam is the best hi res model to go with. I'm interested in seeing what the RGEM spits out too.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Look at the difference between both total precip and total snow on 18z NAM12k and 3k WTH???
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It all really boils down to upscale growth of cyclonic potential vorticity and lowering MSLP from convection, the 3km NAM is able to resolve this however it has multiple competing low pressure centers (probably spurious). On the other hand, the 12km NAM parameterizes convection and has a singular, much stronger low just east of Hatteras but may be missing out on intense convection offshore that's important to the growth of the surface low. The diabatic contribution to this storm is certainly not as large as it was during the January 3-4 event wherein RDU was shafted w/ a mesoscale dry slot but it's still important here nonetheless.
 
A slushy inch maybe 2 NW of the triad, trace-dusting SE of there on the 12z Euro. The northern mountains are likely going to be the big winners here w/ 3-7"+ seeming probable
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Gosh here's hoping some get a dream come true for March ... ;)
Good luck, my Folks on the other side of the neighborhood!
Enjoying your posts!
Think of us warmies ... :cool:
Best!
Your Curmudgeon
 
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