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Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Jul 25, 2018.

  1. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    There was also a Major Storm for parts of Northwest MS and Memphis before Christmas that year. I believe I found a report a couple days ago that stated there was still 10 inches of snow on the ground for Memphis, Christmas Day.
     
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  2. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Lol classic screw job for RDU, at least the Triad cashed in w/ a couple inches of snow
    December 31-January 1 1964 NC Snowmap.png
     
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  4. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    87 still has to be the most painful winter for RDU. Missing back to back mid-Jan winter storms by 20-30 miles. Feb made up for it but still missing 10-15 of snow by that close.
     
  5. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yeah this is what I was getting at a few weeks ago, don't get me wrong 86-87 was still a great winter, but that's a common theme you see throughout many (certainly not all) El Nino winters in the historical record. The chances that the Triad cashes in more than RDU (relative to the average of 2-3" or so) is higher than normal during El Nino.
     
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  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    1965-66 is another great modern example:
    January 29-31 1966 NC Snowmap.png
    January 15-16 1966 NC Snowmap.png
    January 22-23 1966 NC Snowmap.png

    January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png
     
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  7. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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  8. Rain Cold

    Rain Cold Target Snow Shields and Fire! Member

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    Check out Bastardi’s daily video on the weatherbell home page. Only do it if you like good winter things. :)
     
  9. NoSnowATL

    NoSnowATL Member

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    Had to shower after watching it.
     
  10. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    Definitely a good video to watch. I'll post the direct link when they upload it to facebook.
     
  11. packfan98

    packfan98 Staff Member Moderator

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    Here's JB's video for today:
     
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  12. Stormdoc

    Stormdoc Member

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    More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.
     
  13. Snowman63

    Snowman63 Member

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    Yes, Memphis received 14" of snow on December 23,1963 and also recorded a record low of -13 on December 24, 1963. This was the 1st of two Winter storms that month; the next one was further South-East covering Alabama and Middle Tennessee.

    Here is a video of the December 23, 1963 snow in Memphis.

     
  14. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    And southeast of us too.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. MichaelJ

    MichaelJ Member

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    Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Holy crap that’s cold!
     
  17. SnowNiner

    SnowNiner Member

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    Yeah, there's always a lot of talk about 09-10 but I don't remember it being that great for CLT either. I think we had 2-3 events but they were pretty minor, nickel and dimes. February 26-27 2004 was my jam.
     
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  18. Jon

    Jon Member

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    I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

    Last year’s:
    [​IMG]

    Reality:
    [​IMG]



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  19. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?
     
  20. SnowNiner

    SnowNiner Member

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    AKA, weenie analog model. Going to go ahead and not expect that 500 pattern either.
     
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  21. Jon

    Jon Member

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    I wouldn’t say busting 1.5-2C widespread for the entire US is a general idea, but I guess it could have busted extremely warm or something so I get it.

    It is new. I think there’s a couple more years you could compare (at least one more)...the problem is obvious. The big red blob under Greenland that never happened in reality. The “pioneer model” has a bunch of years with a -NAO that never happened.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  22. Jon

    Jon Member

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    Another example Winter 2016-17

    Pioneer Model
    [​IMG]

    Reality
    [​IMG]

    This isn’t pioneer but it’s still Bastardi
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Lesson: JB has a cold bias. Lol
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2018
  23. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year
    JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see
     
  24. NoSnowATL

    NoSnowATL Member

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    That’s like saying a thief like open doors.
     
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  25. Jon

    Jon Member

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    They’re basically saying “our model works when winter is cold because we always forecast cold winters”


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  26. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    To hell with the pioneer, what do the French and German models show ??? models for everyone !!!!!


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  27. Brent

    Brent Member

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    its 1 of only 3 winters there's been more than a foot of snow here(looks like it was January 1964 here actually)

    All in :p
     
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  28. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Looks like the pioneer model has some algorithms from the DGEX!
     
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  29. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    I really want to see where we are in reality around Thanksgiving and what the models are spitting out for early December. The ridging across the north Pacific into Alaska and the arctic circle along with the Scandinavian ridge has me intrigued.

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  30. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    Why shower, when you can slosh in the tub?
     
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