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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

accu35 said:
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Seems fair enough, ill take my chances on this pattern for our winter storms. Not a bad pattern.
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No thank you ... :confused:
 
ForsythSnow said:
If we can pair that with a -NAO for some time (if only) then it could go well, but what are the chances of having one?
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Lol yeah i agree on that, if this pattern happens the way i posted above then it shouldn't be that bad. If indeed we stay neutral/weak Nino then ill take my chances on a wet pattern only to get a nice cold blast to involve with it. -NAO would help but it doesn't have to solid to get a nice winterstorm or 2. There still calling "possible" onset weak Nino then falling towards Neutral but will see what happens, plenty time to go. Fun times ahead for sure.
 
Thats just one of lots of forecast that are out. I seen one a bit ago where there calling a neutral with below avg temps and snow/ice events for the southeast, LOL. This is the fun part of it all
 
Webberweather53 said:
While 1971-72 was a warm winter in NC, we still ended up seeing a big dog hit the southwestern piedmont and south-central mountains early in December and it managed to produce some decent snowfall further east across central NC.
View attachment 788
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I remember the torch that ensued after that snowstorm. That was a strange winter...bookended by a snowstorm in early December and another one in late March.
 
Eric said:
I remember the torch that ensued after that snowstorm. That was a strange winter...bookended by a snowstorm in early December and another one in late March.
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precisely why no one in their right mind wants a real early snow (or winter) ... it bookends, inevitably ... :oops:
 
accu35 said:
Lol yeah i agree on that, if this pattern happens the way i posted above then it shouldn't be that bad. If indeed we stay neutral/weak Nino then ill take my chances on a wet pattern only to get a nice cold blast to involve with it. -NAO would help but it doesn't have to solid to get a nice winterstorm or 2. There still calling "possible" onset weak Nino then falling towards Neutral but will see what happens, plenty time to go. Fun times ahead for sure.
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Looks like that pattern could set up some nice wedge events. I'll take that look this far out...
 
WeatherWatch said:
Here is Weather Advanced preliminary winter outlook. Not sure how creditable Weather Advance is.

http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2017-2018-outlook/


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From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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Yeah it's horrible and difficult to read but funny thing is it may very well be right Lol.... who knows?! Especially wrt to some CAD ice events
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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Lol, your right i think that battle zone line will vary different directions this year. Higher "Kicked" vortex? Sounds like there not sure how cold it will actually get in the southeast. There ealry winter forecast that based on in the month of May, tells me i smell ICE STORM further south than they are projecting
 
ForsythSnow said:
From experience, I have seen that same forecast the last 6 years, just with the lines moved a couple hundred miles each time. It's not very credible in my opinion, and the fact they try this early basing their info solely on ENSO and analogs won't get them very far. What's worse is that they are basing the ENSO off of what it was in May, and where it was headed then, not now. It also looks like it was written with little regard to spelling.
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The person who runs it lives in MD. Note that it says "wet cold snowy" for his area. If it had instead said "dry mild little snow", I'd likely have given it more weight right off the bat.

I checked further. Look at this page:

http://weatheradvance.com/winter-center/

Note that there's not one prediction for mild/above average temperatures, below average snow, and dry for all 6 winters in MD.
 
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pcbjr said:
Ya'all are killing me ... one more post before October 1st about what this winter "may" bring, and I'm finding the tallest mountain in Florida and jumping ... :confused:
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You mean the clay pits Lol!!
 
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