1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Winter 2017-18 discussion

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Jul 13, 2017.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,558
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    I have as well, and he lives further north of us now, so he should see snow. Atlanta itself is more likely to have snow if we get a pattern that isn't too cold and has moisture. What Atlanta needs is a good overrunning event. Those seem more likely than big lows and aren't as risky.
     
    MBell likes this.
  2. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    37
    Location:
    Atlanta, GA
    Agreed, Overrunning events usually last longer too which is why I like them the best in winter weather setups. I hope that ends up being the theme for this upcoming 2017-2018 Winter season.
     
    Brent, accu35 and whatalife like this.
  3. WeatherWatch

    WeatherWatch

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2017
    Messages:
    76
    Location:
    North GA
    Of course there will always be these "battlezones" in the south & the SE always has that chance of CAD events vs all snow events but not all the time. I'm saying that towards any outlook that someone puts out, that puts "battlezones" over the south.

    Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
     
  4. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    582
    Location:
    Wake Forest, NC
    Wake County is always in the battlezone when it comes to winter storms.
     
  5. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,240
    Location:
    USA
    Not always, but from what I've gleaned from my winter storm reconstructions in the past 120 years or so, this seems to occur more often during El Nino winters... I can find far more examples of -ENSO & NINA winter RDU or northern coastal plain bullseyes or at least (there seems to be) many more cases where there isn't a big gradient in snowfall to the north & west of the Triangle during big dog winter storms in non NINO winters for reasons unbeknownst to me...
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2017
    Storm5 and accu35 like this.
  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,240
    Location:
    USA
    January 1966 is an ideal example of what I was talking about wrt the prevalence of Piedmont gradient snowstorms during El Nino winters, wherein RDU usually gets fringed with lighter snows and the primary precipitation type ending up as a mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and/or a cold rain while legitimate snows remain confined north & west of I-85 along a line from about Roxboro-Greensboro-Statesville and pts NWward...
    Many are quite aware without looking at all of the snowfall data that January 1966 was a cold/snowy month here in NC, but what they don't know is how bad RDU-CLT got screwed over... repeatedly...
    cd2606-a000-1500-8005-edbe-f1bc-e9a2-3314.222.19.12.59.prcp.png


    It's equivalent to January 2016 two-three times over in a span of just a few weeks.

    20160123.accum.gif

    The core of the heaviest snow in every storm in January 1966 was either north and/or northwest of the Triangle. While it was very impressive for RDU to get 12" of snow that month, almost all of which came in one storm, it definitely changes your opinion of January 1966 to know there was about 3x that much snow about 50 miles to the northwest of RDU near Roxboro and Yanceyville...
    January 15-16 1966 NC Snowmap.png

    January 22-23 1966 NC Snowmap.png
    January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png

    January 29-31 1966 NC Snowmap.png
     
    Storm5 likes this.
  7. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,332
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    Holy HORRIBLE !!!! This would be our luck. #fearthesoutheastridge[​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    tennessee storm likes this.
  8. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Lexington, SC


    What model is that?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    163
    Location:
    jackson, tennessee....
    that looks very la ninish...
     
  10. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]

    In short! JB has canceled winter in the SE. Time to move on to next winter


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Webberweather53 and pcbjr like this.
  11. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    3,643
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Based on that, we'll have two solid weeks of snow in Gainesville the entire time I'm in Tokyo at Christmas, given the track record ... :p
     
  12. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,332
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    It's the SE winter cancel model


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    whatalife, accu35 and pcbjr like this.
  13. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,332
    Location:
    Birmingham Alabama
    This is the best news of the day so far. If JB is saying warm for us we all know to expect the opposite. I hope he goes full torch for us


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  14. accu35

    accu35

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,155
    Im not worried at all about this winter. All it takes is one good cold front to meet our strom. I bet next month will be different with modle outlook for winter
     
    pcbjr, ForsythSnow and Storm5 like this.
  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,050
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    ^Actually, that isn't a mild SE fcast as temps are only within 1F of norm, which means way colder than last one.
     
  16. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,240
    Location:
    USA
    Yep exactly! The winter of 2010-11 was the last time he forecasted a warm winter for us and we all know how that turned out.
     
    whatalife and skywatcher like this.
  17. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,558
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    That was the best winter ever in recent times. Not only did we get a rare white Christmas, but we had a total of 3 storms in one winter, despite one only dropping an inch and the Christmas storm dropping 4" and the January one 8".
     
    accu35, whatalife and skywatcher like this.
  18. Arcc

    Arcc

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    303
    If I remember right, 13-14' was also supposed to be a warm winter as well. We know what happened from late December though January.
     
    Webberweather53 likes this.
  19. Arcc

    Arcc

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    303
    We had 3-4" for Christmas 2" plus ice from the January storm and an inch from one in February. Then we had two or three more snow shower days.
     
    whatalife likes this.
  20. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    163
    Location:
    jackson, tennessee....
    going be hard to get a good cold front penetrate that ridge... if that verifies... going be nice battle zone setip for winter severe outbreak chances... to be honest
     
    accu35 likes this.
  21. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    Yes it was!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  22. accu35

    accu35

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,155
    Lol, your a severe freak anyways i bet thats what you want. I still dont thing the ridge will be that bad as models point out to be. I still believe this year will end up colder than last year plus better winter storm potential
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,558
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    I agree. It seems that winter forecasts rarely verify from big outlets. Plus, it's a weather model. It's August. What are the chances of will be exactly like that in a month? Also, above average doesn't mean the end of the world.
     
    accu35 and pcbjr like this.
  24. Arcc

    Arcc

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    303
    This is why using broad based analogs fail so bad. That is not a warm winter even if that is correct. A week or two of decent above average temps can easily skew a winter a half degree above normal.
     
    pcbjr and whatalife like this.
  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    3,643
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Since on August 12th folks seem intent on discussing a winter forecast, I'm offering a mid-winter thought ...

    [​IMG]
     
    Brent, accu35 and whatalife like this.
  26. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,428
    Location:
    Lexington, SC
    Yep. I agree w/you 100%.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  27. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,240
    Location:
    USA
    Oops :)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    December 25-26 2010 NC Snowmap.gif
    [​IMG]

    400x266_10201822_winter1011final.jpg
     
    Storm5, accu35, whatalife and 4 others like this.
  28. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    3,643
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    accu35 and whatalife like this.
  29. cd2play

    cd2play

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2017
    Messages:
    100
    Location:
    Nashville, TN
    That's what she said!
     
    Brent, whatalife and pcbjr like this.
  30. Eric

    Eric

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2017
    Messages:
    13
    Location:
    Charlotte, NC
    Some photos from January 1966. The January 29-30, 1966 snowstorm was accompanied by record cold temperatures.[​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page