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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Yeah, the east wobbles have been winning out lately although it almost looks like a slight wobble back north atm.... either way it may pass just east of them. Like you say going to be very close call.

Yeah last few frames it looks to be wiggling back more to the north. These wobbles will be absolutely critical for them and I hope for their sake they get on the "weaker" nw side.
 
EWW issued by NWS TAE:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
EXTREME WIND WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1111 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* EXTREME WIND WARNING FOR...
GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN BAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/.

* AT 1109 AM EDT/1009 AM CDT/, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED EXTREME WINDS IN EXCESS OF 130 MPH, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE MICHAEL, WERE MOVING ONSHORE. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING AND MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SAFE ROOM IN YOUR
SHELTER. TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!
 
There's little evidence this is a category 5 hurricane atm, even the dropsonde that measured 129 KT in the eyewall earlier is measuring instantaneous wind and has to be adjusted down to calculate 1-min average. I'd like to see FL winds get close to 155 knots before I'd even consider pulling the trigger on a 5. However given the merging mesovorts that might happen in short order.

It's not there yet but getting pretty close. Radar at 7k feet is showing a good amount of 170-180mph winds on the east side and that number still is going up. It has enough time to hit cat 5 still but recon will need to sample some higher FL or SFMR winds to consider it.
 
No words...
mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05_20181010151358.gif
 
It's not there yet but getting pretty close. Radar at 7k feet is showing a good amount of 170-180mph winds on the east side and that number still is going up. It has enough time to hit cat 5 still but recon will need to sample some higher FL or SFMR winds to consider it.

I think the FL & SFMR will come up in response to the mesovort mergers ongoing atm how much idk but they probably should have given this the bump to 130 KT w/ under sampling taken into consideration at the last advisory even though the dropsonde in the weaker NW eyewall didn't exactly support it because of the instantaneous wind measurement adjustment to 1-min averaged sustained winds.
 
Yeah this thing is still strengthening. Can you imagine if you were in Port St Joe right now..Grief..the LF aftermath is going to rival Sullivan’s Island and IOP when Hugo hit with extreme damage inland
 
I think the FL & SFMR will come up in response to the mesovort mergers ongoing atm how much idk but they probably should have given this the bump to 130 KT w/ under sampling taken into consideration at the last advisory even though the dropsonde in the weaker NW eyewall didn't exactly support it because of the instantaneous wind measurement adjustment to 1-min averaged sustained winds.

Yeah everything I see on radar, visible, IR and recon indicates this is probably a legit 150mph right now with a chance of hitting 155-160mph by landfall as the winds respond to the continued pressure falls... Either way though a 150mph cat 4 or 160mph cat 5 will be incredibly destructive.
 
Luckily (if there is a lucky side) this thing seems to be taking the less populated and developed route
 
ICON latest track and rainfall, starting to really see the effects of interaction with the trough as some 8" amounts showing up in areas that really don't need it

icon_apcpn_seus_15.png
 
There's actually a lot of evidence -- especially radar trends in the northern eyewall and the corresponding pressure drops found -- that this thing is right on the threshold of a Category 5.

It's definitely close... but the NHC usually relies pretty heavily on the SFMR data and I doubt they will bump winds up unless that shows an increase or we see FL winds of 150+. This is very close to a cat 5 for sure and a remarkable but scary presentation on IR right now.
 
Unfortunately it looks like all the SFMR readings in the SE quad were flagged this pass. Personally I would go 150mph as the pressure falls, improving IR and radar presentation and increasing FL winds would support it especially if you use a higher conversion ratio to account for the RI and intense convection.
 
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