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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

The storm is effectively walled off from dry air right now... there is very little chance of it weakening and the radar presentation is actually continuing to improve. Winds probably won't increase from here but pressure may drop a little bit more.

Yeah, it's not gonna get any intrusion from the west.
 
I mean yeah it's not Florence but for areas like the Triangle this may very well end up being the worst of the two storms.

I know, that is what I am getting at. From what I have seen online from local mets, it seems they are saying the opposite.

Here is one: That being said, I don't expect this to be anywhere near as bad as Florence because it won't be multiple days of rain and wind. It's going to be a fast mover, swept out to sea by a cold front that's on its way across the country. We've had non-tropical storms earlier this year that had heavy/flooding rains and gusty winds, and I would liken this more to them.

And then this graphic from WRAL.

43615015_2181907438719544_7149274978918072320_n.jpg
 
Good grief... 926.8 pressure now.
recon_AF306-1314A-MICHAEL_zoom.png
 
The current Enhanced/IR looks just like the ridiculous sim satellites did from days ago. This is not going to go well for FL. :(

The eyewall on the left is slightly weak.. but it looks like its about to wrap back up stronger. :(
 
The current Enhanced/IR looks just like the ridiculous sim satellites did from days ago. This is not going to go well for FL. :(

My concern is Panama City where city official said 25k or so stayed behind... if they are right and this makes landfall there... the death toll would be extremely high.
 
The map I just saw on TWC shows wind gusts near 100 mph at 3pm near Panama City. I figured it would be higher than that.
 
Winds so far have not yet responded to the pressure drops... usually takes a few hours to respond which would put it close to landfall when winds catch up. A run at 150-155 seems very possible if this pressure drop continues.
 
The map I just saw on TWC shows wind gusts near 100 mph at 3pm near Panama City. I figured it would be higher than that.

It will be gusting 140-160 there if they get in the NE eyewall.. if they are in the NW eyewall maybe a bit lower since that portion is weaker and the wind would be moving over more land instead of off the water... it's going to be close.
 
So sad, my family was in pcb just 2 weeks ago on vacation. My wife and I was talking one morning looking out over the gulf from our balcony wondering when the last time the area was hit by a hurricane. Who could of imagined what was to come and oh by the way, my name is Michael.
 
Based on?
It’s only a matter of time before that giant dry slot ahead of the front to Michael’s west begins to get ingested. Also, due to the concave nature of the panhandle area it’s looking to hit, land interaction is going to affect a greater surface area of the hurricane than if it were running into a more flat coastline. It’s like a ball going into a bowl rather than a table. Thirdly, cat 4’s don’t hit the panhandle for a reason. I believe one of those reasons is the abrupt coastal shelf that extends from 87W 28N eastward. The shallower water will be churned easily and cold water upwelling will cut off that energy source quickly.

JMO. I could be wrong.

Edit: please note I’m not trying to diminish the very serious and potentially catastrophic scenario unfolding. I’m siding with history, which may be proven just that today.
 
Brock Long - FEMA Administrator just said in live press brief: "People that stuck around to experience 12-14 ft surge don't typically live to tell about it" :(
 
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It’s only a matter of time before that giant dry slot ahead of the front to Michael’s west begins to get ingested. Also, due to the concave nature of the panhandle area it’s looking to hit, land interaction is going to affect a greater surface area of the hurricane than if it were running into a more flat coastline. It’s like a ball going into a bowl rather than a table. Thirdly, cat 4’s don’t hit the panhandle for a reason. I believe one of those reasons is the abrupt coastal shelf that extends from 87W 28N eastward. The shallower water will be churned easily and cold water upwelling will cut off that energy source quickly.

JMO. I could be wrong.

Edit: please note I’m not trying to diminish the very serious and potentially catastrophic scenario unfolding. I’m siding with history, which may be proven just that today.
I'm with you on the history part. There's a reason why there's been no cat 4 hurricanes in this area in 150 years of records. Until it happens I don't believe it is possible.
 
It’s only a matter of time before that giant dry slot ahead of the front to Michael’s west begins to get ingested. Also, due to the concave nature of the panhandle area it’s looking to hit, land interaction is going to affect a greater surface area of the hurricane than if it were running into a more flat coastline. It’s like a ball going into a bowl rather than a table. Thirdly, cat 4’s don’t hit the panhandle for a reason. I believe one of those reasons is the abrupt coastal shelf that extends from 87W 28N eastward. The shallower water will be churned easily and cold water upwelling will cut off that energy source quickly.

JMO. I could be wrong.

Edit: please note I’m not trying to diminish the very serious and potentially catastrophic scenario unfolding. I’m siding with history, which may be proven just that today.

Yeah normally the upwelling and dry air would be an issue but Michael seems pretty walled off from dry air intrusion now that the core has its act together and is moving in tandem with the shear thus minimizing its effects. Michael is also showing signs of speeding up to the NNE or NE now which will minimize any upwelling and there isn't much time left until landfall and the pressure continues to drop at a very fast rate. I think we are about to see history made here, unfortunately.
 
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