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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure is centered about 80 miles north of the coast of Honduras,
however, the system is somewhat elongated and does not yet have a
closed circulation. Heavier showers and thunderstorms have been
developing near and to the east of the low's center during the past
several hours, and extensive cloudiness and showers extend elsewhere
across the western Caribbean Sea eastward over the Greater Antilles.
Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually more
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of
this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan
peninsula, and western Cuba into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


$$
 
8D66ABDC-C4EA-4600-8DDF-37FCF8AC5FBB.png Euro going with a very weak storm, around Mobile AL landfall!
 
238DA26D-B77D-419B-BE8F-F2ACE97279EA.png 238DA26D-B77D-419B-BE8F-F2ACE97279EA.png D6E61047-2685-418D-B717-5B597029C511.png Then very, very slow movement !!!! Moves about 150/200 miles in 3 days!
 
B369AA39-75E8-4014-B77C-900C6C225575.png Thursday....
 
BE3BFBB3-8C40-4F08-8DAE-7D0B1F60B1D6.png Sunday...!!!!!
 
8:00am tropical outlook from the NHC
Screenshot_2018-10-06_at_7.55.16_AM.png
 
8 am. 80/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Satellite imagery, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered just north of the
Bay Islands of Honduras. The associated showers and thunderstorms
show signs of organization, however, the system does not yet have a
well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
become gradually more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
or Monday while the system moves slowly northward. Interests in the
Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern coast of the Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next
several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of
Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Slow moving system with trough interaction spells trouble

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Yup...all with trough interaction with similar paths. See charts on global model run thread.

Eloise 9/23/75 955 MB 125 mph
Opal 10/6/95 . 916 mb 150 mph
Agnes 6/23/72. 977 MB. 85 mph
Florence 9/26/53. 968 MB 115 mph. Landfall 80 mph
Flossy 9/30/56 . 974 MB 90 mph...2 landfall...mouth of MS river and Ft. Walton/Destin, FL
 
Appears to be somewhat similar to Opal in 1995, in regards to track and time of year. Opal was stronger storm and this doesn't appear to be as strong. Opal also went further north. I guess it comes down to the stubborn SER. Some forecasts have a trough pushing it out with a front later this upcoming week but we have seen how that goes. If it does get caught up by that front, it seems to me that it will be pulled further NNE. If not, then it could be much slower. Just my uneducated observations though ....
 
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