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Tropical Tropical Storm Michael

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Oct 4, 2018.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Might as well start the thread since it's up to 0/40.

    1. A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of
    Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of
    disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western
    Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While
    surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds
    are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
    Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this
    weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as
    the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
     
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  2. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Yep all models have something now, so looking more and more likely...
     
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  3. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Euro weak system right around the Fl/Al border
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Looks like the euro recurves right over AL/GA
     
  5. Henry2326

    Henry2326 Member

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    What does "environmental conditions become less hostile" mean?
    I.e. if its less shear, what is changing to cause that to happen? Movement of the high? Thanks so much! :):D:rolleyes:
     
  6. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    EPS trending wetter for the SE.

    EPSprecip.gif
     
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  7. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I found 19 TCs on record since 1851 during El Nino that had genesis 10/1-10 either in the W Caribbean or the GOM. Of those, 11 landfalled in FL with 6 of those hitting in/near the Big Bend though none have done so since 1900, 1 hitting Tampa area, 3 hitting Ft. Myers area, and 1 hitting the S tip. Another 2 hit LA and 1 hit the TX/LA border. So, 14 of 19 hit the CONUS. Regarding the other 5, 3 hit the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos, 1 hit MX, and 1 died in the W Caribbean.
    13 of the 19 were during weak Nino, 3 during moderate Nino, and 3 during strong Nino. So, of all during El Nino, they've been more common during weak ones similar to what we're in now.


    **Edit for pcbjr and others to make feel somewhat better: Of the 14 that hit the CONUS, only 5 hit as a H (good news). I assume this is partially due to there being shear inducing El Nino in some of these cases.
    Edit 2: But the bad news is that SSTs are above normal much of the GOM..so more fuel.
     
    Last edited: Oct 4, 2018
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  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry, Love ya man, but can you divine some stats that say "No way"? ... LOL
     
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  9. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Read the brand new edit to make you feel better.
     
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  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    :cool:
     
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  11. Henry2326

    Henry2326 Member

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    Up to 50%

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

    1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that an area of low
    pressure is located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border
    of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is accompanied by an
    extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
    eastward through Hispaniola. Upper-level winds are not currently
    favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but environmental
    conditions are forecast to become less hostile and a tropical
    depression could form by late this weekend or early next week in the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico as the
    system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
    formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains
    primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula
    during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
     
  12. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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    We have 97E in the pacific close by so probably gotta wait til that moves out.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  13. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] FWIW, which ain't much in the long range.
     
  14. accu35

    accu35 Member

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  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    0Z UKMET FL panhandle into SE AL and then west central GA: way right of 24 hours ago; nearly identical to 0Z CMC;
    pressure at hour 144 of 979 mb looks funky since that's well inland


    NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
    FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.9N 86.9W

    LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
    VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
    -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
    1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 17.9N 86.9W 1005 27
    0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 18.7N 86.5W 1005 27
    1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 19.9N 87.2W 1003 35
    0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.3N 87.1W 1001 34
    1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 21.6N 88.4W 1001 35
    0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 22.4N 88.4W 1000 33
    1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.9N 88.6W 999 37
    0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 26.0N 88.3W 997 37
    1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.9N 87.0W 990 49
    0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 32.0N 85.2W 979 36
     
  16. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    JMA fwiw is still east of the consensus; 20N, 83W at hour 72; still weak
     
  17. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    0Z GEFS 21 members: still quite busy and much more active than GFS

    FL: 7 TS+ hits 10/11-14; 4 H (2 Apalach., Pan City, Big Bend) 3 TS (Tampa, Pensacola, Big Bend)

    AL: 1 H 10/11

    E LA: 1 TS 10/13

    E LA/MS: 1 H 10/16-7
     
  18. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    0Z FV3: H LA/MS border 10/9
     
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  19. Brent

    Brent Member

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    An area of low pressure located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the
    eastern border of Honduras and Nicaragua is accompanied by an
    extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
    eastward across Hispaniola. Although strong winds aloft are located
    just to the north of this system, the upper-level environment is
    expected to be conducive enough to allow for some development, and a
    tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next
    week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico
    while the system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical
    cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring
    torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the
    Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
     
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  20. Meteorologist1999

    Meteorologist1999 WeathermanTY Member

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    0z Euro shows a stall over GOM south of FL Panhandle.
     
  21. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    0Z Euro: TS landfall AL 10/13
     
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  22. Meteorologist1999

    Meteorologist1999 WeathermanTY Member

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    Per 0z Euro much needed rain for Lowcountry of SC and much of the Midlands.
     
  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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    wow takes 3 days to go from SE LA to the Panhandle on the Euro
     
  24. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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    Wouldn’t doubt it. That’s the theme these days.


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  25. NCSNOW

    NCSNOW Member

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    Yea BHS1975 I've been thinking about this theme a lot past couple of weeks. Sitting here waiting for Fall to arrive and the past couple of months at 5H in our corner of the world the flow is stagnant and not progressive at all. We can thank the Ridge configuration in the Atlantic for bottle necking everything up. It is locked in and somewhat worrisome seeing the SER in particular firmly entrenched and no signs of loosing its grip. I want be the least bit surprised if we do get a tropical entity to spin up, crawl around the Gulf coast line for a few days. Usually this time of year anything that forms in the GOM gets picked up by a front and is off to the races pole ward. But like Florence and our other most recent named storms, the pole ward pipeline is clogged up.
     
  26. Meteorologist1999

    Meteorologist1999 WeathermanTY Member

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    Can someone post 0z Ukmet rainfall accumulation and the 0z EPS rainfall???
     
  27. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    12z models are off and the ICON stalls it out in the GOM.... seems to be the trend. Better than stalling it out over land

    edit: Should add, through the end of it's run (180 hrs) stalls from Wednesday through Saturday
     
  28. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Wow GFS more robust with development this run...
     
  29. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Yep. Finally caught onto what the other models have been showing.
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    When the GFS joins the party it joins the party....
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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