Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Sep 2, 2018.
Was just designated this morning.
Recon as early as tomorrow morning
1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Looks like a TD already to me. Probably going to strengthen quite well into a strong TS in the Gulf before making landfall in LA.
Finally something interesting !
Euro is into Louisiana them almost right over Brent . CMC and gfs are further east . The cmc seems like the best track with the gfs and euro on either sides. With the ridging over the mid Atlantic the eastern most track ( gfs ) seems very unlikely
May have a PTC at 5pm et
60 mph peak but mention could be a little stronger at landfall
Gordon is on the way . NHC appears to be using the euro with the track
Well that escalated quickly. Lol
Seems like it always does with these gulf systems. Lol
Wish it would curve some and give us some rain here in Alabama and Tennessee. Been dry here for past few weeks pretty bad. Also notice we are back on low side of drought monitor.
Yeah, wish it would drift over SC after landfall, but with 4-5 possible storm parading across the Atlantic, according to the models, maybe I can score some rain out of one of them!
We need to watch for POSSIBLE RI , as it hits the very warm waters and better environment, as it looks to be moving towards LA
Fyi-I'll be merging the tropics and regular discussion boards tomorrow morning.
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Second that motion!!
looks like we're getting close to having a center... recon takes off in about 5 hours
I think they declare it TD at 5. Maybe
We have Tropical Storm Gordon.
Tropical Storm Gordon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018
...TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORMS NEAR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
Surface observations from the Florida Keys and radar data indicate
that Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has become Tropical Storm
Gordon, with maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph (75 km/h). A
Tropical Storm Warning will be issued shortly for portions of the
Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula in a forthcoming
special advisory to be issued by 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 805 AM EDT...1205 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF CAPE SABLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.79 INCHES
So Gordon is our second landfalling system of the year, with Florida being its first landfall. Sort of hard to determine if it was but its center is over land so therefore I am counting it as a landfall.
NHC Shifted the track a little east this morning as the euro and cmc were east of previous runs . The gfs remains the far eastern outlier with landfall along the Mississippi coast
The HWRF always does this with storms. If what Webber mentioned about the friction from land mass being true and the system is a fast mover, this isn't likely. If it was a bit slower, yes, it could be likely.
Just a question? Since this is our big story as of now, can we go live
Your right, also with just 16 mph movement and a hot tub awaiting, I can see it reach strong TS
Or cat 1 at the most. Who knows, it's gonna be a big rain maker
Agreed, the HWRF is notorious for doing this....