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Tropical Tropical Storm Don

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Jul 16, 2017.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Seemingly out of nowhere, we have this system. Up to 20/40, And the CMC has a storm, while the GFS and Euro have a weak low. This could be a system we were tracking earlier, but I lost track of if it was. If it was the last thread that we called a dead storm, then this thread should merge with it. Won't be around to track it between Monday evening and Friday afternoon, so if it forms I will make the wiki page this weekend. Also if it does, if we were tracking it, the GFS and/or CMC would wiki dependant on which fantasy storm it was.

    It is heading for the Carribean, and is modeled weak relatively except for a few other models.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
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  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Forgot to look and just did and saw the NAVGEM has probably the most interesting path as well as strength.[​IMG]
     
  3. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    I figure this would happen. Man whether it forms or not, im very bored Lol. Let have some fun
     
  4. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    In Wiki.
     
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  5. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Probably gonna be similar to Bret as of now
     
  6. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] Wind Shear expected to drop. Development may occur within next day or 2
     
  7. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] Nice spin
     
  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Up to 30/40. HWRF has it becoming a hurricane, lol at the TCLP. Also, looking at the satellite, it's looking better and better. I think this could have a shot at becoming a storm.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] 95L looks pretty good with increase storms tonight.
     
  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    FWIW ...

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I have a feeling that the new wave behind Invest 95L could be classified as a invest soon.
     
  12. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The recon is investigating it as we speak.
    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  13. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    TD5 on the way!
    182400 1103N 05219W 9771 00299 0110 +231 +222 350020 020 /// /// 03
    182430 1102N 05217W 9773 00293 0105 +235 +215 333021 021 /// /// 03
    182500 1102N 05216W 9773 00289 0101 +240 +216 321020 021 /// /// 03
    182530 1101N 05214W 9768 00292 0098 +243 +218 304020 020 /// /// 03
    182600 1101N 05212W 9768 00293 0098 +244 +223 284016 020 /// /// 03
    182630 1101N 05211W 9774 00288 0100 +243 +226 234019 022 /// /// 03
    182700 1101N 05209W 9757 00309 //// +225 //// 216034 040 /// /// 05
    182730 1100N 05207W 9778 00296 //// +212 //// 200034 038 /// /// 05
     
  14. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    One more pass and we can probably say this is a tropical depression...
    recon_AF302-01BBA-INVEST.png
     
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  15. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  16. Brent

    Brent Member

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    We may have an advisory before this day is over
     
  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The envelope of earth-relative westerlies, aided in large part by the passage of a weak CCKW and the southwesterlies on the equatorward side of the monsoon trough, is extremely impressive w/ 95L... It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility this could be upgraded to a tropical storm given that the system is moving at about 15 knots to the W-WNW and the winds on the weak side of the circulation were 20-25 knots...
     
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  18. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    There's definitely no shortage of westerlies in 95L, about to find out what the NE quadrant is made of...
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Looks like we might have Tropical Storm Don here, recon found 35 kt surface winds w/ 1009mb minimum SLP.

    recon_AF302-01BBA-INVEST_timeseries.png
     
  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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  21. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  22. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    It's official... Screen Shot 2017-07-17 at 4.34.36 PM.png
     
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  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Finally after so many fake storms we have Don lol
     
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  24. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Yep, 4th storm of the year.
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    That link I posted a few minutes ago sure made it look that way. But you said it 2 hours ago.
    Great call, as per normal, Webb! You're always a step ahead of the curve ... ;)
    Thanks, man!
    Phil
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
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  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    CMC may get a win from this for finding the storm.
     
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  27. JHS

    JHS Member

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    Hopefully this thing comes into the southeast as a tropical storm and changes the hot and dry pattern NC and SC are in. A storm like Beryl from 1994 would get the job done
     
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  28. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Maybe that Crazy Canadian isn't so crazy after all.
     
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  29. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] Don could moist up the low behind it to become a storm as well. Boy if the low behind Don would form, talk about a monster storm. Look how large and broad the structure is
     
  30. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    time to start studying sheer and steering currents ...
     
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