KBMX still talking a tornado threat for central Alabama on Thursday along and west of I65
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Tropical Tropical Storm Cindy
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Looks like the recon mission was cancelled this morning.
Mechanical issues? Seems the only reason they would cancel the mission.... Also 03 looks more subtropical this morning in sat presentation.
The ull to it's west is still creating havoc on the system with wind shear and dry air (look at the dry air being ingested), if not for this it would ramp up very quickly b/c it's holding it's own fairly well for a somewhat hostile environment right now
I would note in the image above appears to be a burst of deep convection about to commence right over what is probably the llc, so it keeps trying...
12z
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Well the recon is going around in circles in southern Mississippi.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 201434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of High Island to San
Luis Pass, Texas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Thursday. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to be near the southwest Louisiana coast
late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over western
Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.
Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 999 mb
(29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level
is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
000
WTNT43 KNHC 201436
TCDAT3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.
The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.
The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
WTNT33 KNHC 201434
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST
THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of High Island to San
Luis Pass, Texas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday night. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast early Thursday. On the forecast track,
the disturbance is expected to be near the southwest Louisiana coast
late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over western
Louisiana and eastern Texas on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the
coast.
Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is
gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system
will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 999 mb
(29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today and spread westward
within the warning area through Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest
Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday.
STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level
is possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
000
WTNT43 KNHC 201436
TCDAT3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017
Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,
but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears
to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy
42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer
to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being
maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system
could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later
today.
The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on
continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission
into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is
forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical
shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off
the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the
there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a
mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a
better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered
generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts
with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more
north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve
around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows
the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by
48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the
mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across
the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central
Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.
The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
Wets the word along the coast
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Should be Cindy at the next advisory.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
The aircraft found surface winds of around 57 mph not too long ago in the Northeast quadrant as they were flying in.
No doubt it's Cindy at this point
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
After that pass recon did, I can agree. The center is closed, but the clouds and precipitation still is all on the right half. Clouds are wrapping around and it will only be a matter of time before the center is entirely wrapped. Still some dry air, but the moisture is coming around from the north part of the storm.
Also, am I seeing the center move southward, or is that just a mid level circulation?
We officially have Cindy
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They use to call her Cindy, but she changed her to Cin, guess that's just the name of her game...We officially have Cindy
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RVD
Meteorology Student
The NHC is is giving Cindy 40kt winds currently, but a buoy north of the center is reporting >50kt winds (not gusts)!
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KGRY
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KGRY
How rare is it to have 3 named storms before the Summer Solstice? Has it ever happened ?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Last year is one year, but I'm not sure about other years.
Cant believe I forgot about last year. At this time last year we already had 4 named storms. TWC just said there are only 3 other years on record with 2 concurrent June storms.