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Tropical Tropical Storm Bret

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Webberweather53, Jun 16, 2017 at 10:22 AM.

  1. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Here's the first public advisory and discussion for potential tropical cyclone two. Tropical Storm warnings have been hoisted for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.
    Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 4.58.25 PM.png
    Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 4.59.35 PM.png
    Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 5.00.01 PM.png
     
  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    I have never seen "Potential tropical cyclone" before, but I saw them mentioning it in the 2017 updates for the NHC.
     
  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Yeah, the NHC is allowed to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for storms they think have a very good chance of becoming a tropical cyclone to allot individuals more time to prepare for and remain more alert to oncoming tropical cyclones...
     
  4. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    92L looking better and better


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Maybe it will be Bret by morning, or tomorrow evening.
     
  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The satellite presentation of Potential TC Two has continued to improve over the last several hours, and while the NHC is awaiting an ASCAT pass to confirm that a closed, well defined low level circulation exists, I suspect one is already in place with what appears to be the precursor to a central dense overcast and some banding developing near/over where the center is likely forming/has formed. Certainly an impressive storm and one worth watching as it's small size and relatively favorable environment could allow it to undergo rapid intensification into a strong tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane the next 24-36 HR.
    Screen Shot 2017-06-18 at 9.36.12 PM.png
     
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  7. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Latest ATCF message still labels Two as a potential tropical cyclone, but with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph) & a minimum central pressure of 1005mb. The ascending ASCAT pass barely missed the storm but hopefully the descending pass will capture the circulation
     
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  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    The prior runs' quick downgrade to depression has gone away ...

    [​IMG]
     
  9. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy

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    Looks like Recon is heading into the system.
     
  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    They are in the storm now. Max winds I could find unflagged was 47mph. If they find a closed center, this is a tropical storm.
     
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  11. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Sure looks like one to the naked eye -- this is a sneaky little son of a biscuit eater and shouldn't be ignored or dismissed ...
     
  12. Snowfan

    Snowfan

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    They found southwest winds.
     
  13. Snowfan

    Snowfan

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    000
    URNT15 KNHC 191928
    AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 33 20170619
    191800 0852N 06011W 9772 00288 //// +211 //// 014010 011 032 003 05
    191830 0854N 06011W 9770 00285 0097 +210 //// 028011 013 036 003 01
    191900 0855N 06011W 9771 00279 0093 +210 //// 047013 017 051 031 05
    191930 0857N 06011W 9763 00287 0095 +212 +212 059011 012 045 027 00
    192000 0859N 06011W 9772 00281 0097 +213 +213 043010 011 037 020 00
    192030 0901N 06011W 9772 00280 0097 +207 //// 032010 013 041 016 01
    192100 0901N 06011W 9772 00280 0097 +215 //// 021009 013 030 006 01
    192130 0904N 06011W 9767 00287 //// +215 //// 036009 009 026 001 01
    192200 0906N 06011W 9771 00284 //// +217 //// 042010 011 024 000 01
    192230 0908N 06011W 9771 00281 //// +214 //// 049013 016 024 000 01
    192300 0910N 06011W 9770 00282 //// +216 //// 039015 016 020 002 05
    192330 0912N 06011W 9774 00280 0092 +228 +214 041014 015 015 003 03
    192400 0912N 06009W 9770 00285 0092 +225 +217 018014 015 020 001 03
    192430 0912N 06007W 9770 00281 0089 +225 +218 011013 014 020 001 00
    192500 0912N 06005W 9770 00277 0090 +221 +217 002014 014 019 001 00
    192530 0912N 06003W 9771 00287 0097 +219 //// 353012 014 020 000 01
    192600 0912N 06001W 9772 00286 //// +217 //// 354011 012 022 001 01
    192630 0912N 05959W 9770 00286 //// +218 //// 355011 012 023 002 01
    192700 0912N 05957W 9770 00285 0094 +221 +219 345011 012 023 001 03
    192730 0912N 05955W 9772 00282 //// +220 //// 331012 012 023 000 05
    $$
    ;
     
  14. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Just named Tropical Storm Bret.
     
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  15. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Man are you quick!
     
  16. Snowfan

    Snowfan

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    200800 0930N 05947W 9772 00282 0092 +223 +220 082025 025 028 001 01
    200830 0930N 05949W 9771 00281 0090 +225 +216 080027 029 031 000 00
    200900 0930N 05951W 9769 00284 //// +210 //// 078030 031 032 002 01
    200930 0930N 05953W 9771 00282 0090 +222 +220 077032 032 034 002 05
    201000 0930N 05956W 9773 00281 0092 +222 //// 077030 031 035 000 01
    201030 0930N 05958W 9772 00281 0090 +229 +229 076028 030 035 000 01
    201100 0930N 06000W 9770 00284 //// +223 //// 070031 032 034 000 01
    201130 0930N 06002W 9771 00285 //// +219 //// 061029 032 031 001 01
    201200 0930N 06004W 9771 00286 //// +216 //// 056030 031 032 002 01
    201230 0930N 06006W 9770 00287 //// +215 //// 053032 033 034 002 01
    201300 0930N 06008W 9764 00293 0099 +223 //// 050030 033 034 004 01
    201330 0930N 06010W 9770 00288 0098 +223 //// 049030 030 030 006 01
    201400 0930N 06013W 9770 00290 //// +219 //// 046029 030 032 001 01
    201430 0930N 06015W 9771 00290 //// +218 //// 043029 030 032 002 01
    201500 0930N 06017W 9772 00291 //// +219 //// 041031 033 032 002 01
    201530 0930N 06019W 9771 00292 0104 +221 //// 041030 031 031 002 01
    201600 0930N 06021W 9772 00291 //// +219 //// 042029 030 030 001 01
    201630 0930N 06023W 9770 00293 0104 +220 //// 043030 031 030 004 01
    201700 0930N 06025W 9772 00291 0104 +219 //// 042029 030 031 004 01
    201730 0930N 06027W 9771 00292 //// +218 //// 040028 030 033 003 01
    $$
    ;
     
  17. Snowfan

    Snowfan

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    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 201433
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
    1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

    ...BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
    SEA...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...11.6N 64.4W
    ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF CURACAO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Government of Venezuela has discontinued the Tropical Storm
    Warning from Pedernales to Cumana.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Venezuela Isla de Margarita

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Bonaire
    * Curacao
    * Aruba

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
    located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 64.4 West. Bret is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
    motion is expected to continue through tomorrow. On the forecast
    track, the center of the tropical storm or its remnants will
    continue to move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea for the next
    couple of days.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Weakening should begin today, and the system is expected to
    dissipate on Thursday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
    to the north of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
    warning area, but these conditions should subside later today.
    Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
    tonight and Wednesday.

    RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
    to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
    Venezuela through today.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Avila

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 201433
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
    1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

    The cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat
    elongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers
    from TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret
    produced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of
    Grenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity
    is kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring
    only to the north of the center. The intensity forecast remains
    unchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward
    a hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an
    upper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely
    degenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not
    sooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.

    Although the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of
    the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18
    kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the
    Atlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this
    same general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle
    of the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC
    track forecast.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 20/1500Z 11.6N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 21/1200Z 13.2N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    48H 22/1200Z 14.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Avila
     
  18. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Bret is on its last advisory.
     
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  19. Snowfan

    Snowfan

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