Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by stormcentral, Sep 19, 2018.
NOAA NHC desinated Invest97L
00Z models take it through islands.
Intense convection blowup
Seems decently organized for a 20% area. Might just be that because the low is broad.
Agreed it does look decent...
Noaa classify INVEST98L
98L is here (I don’t know how to change the subject header:
97L has already been a tropical depression for a day at least, the NHC is being lazy and assumed it would go away but obviously it must have had a strong LLC last night because it's been naked for almost the entire day and is still continuously firing convection to its east (due to strong westerly shear) while low-level westerlies are obvious from the low-level cloud field.
I was thinking that earlier. Isaac looked about the same, and it's evident there is an organized tight LLC.
Now the NHC issued a special update, but it's contradictory in terms of words and percent.
Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
well-defined low pressure system located about 500 miles east of the
Windward Islands has become better organized over the past few
hours, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are likely to
prevent additional development of this system by late this weekend
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Yeah this should be a tropical depression.
NHC finally caved and pulled the trigger, 97L has become Tropical Depression Eleven.
what a lively forecast lol, dead in 2 days
I know this won't do a whole lot in the long run but ffs call this for what it actually is/has been for nearly 24 hours... It's better late than never I guess.