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Severe Severe Weather Threat April 28-29th

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
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We're likely looking at one of the largest severe weather outbreaks of the season late this weekend and into next weekend across the south-central plains as a wave packet in the Pacific Jet and corresponding 170+ knot upper level jet streak invoke the development of a deep trough in the Rockies which ejects from the four corners region on Friday. Ahead of this trough, excellent moisture return and shear will be prevalent, with dew points and precipitable water values nearing the mid-upper 60s and 1.5-2 inches respectively, bulk shear ~ 50-75 knots, and CAPE around 2500-4000+ j/kg, we certainly have the necessary ingredients for a major severe weather outbreak across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas Friday & Saturday. Post away!

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ecmwf_cape_slp_tx_25.png

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If there's one glaring concern I have regarding this setup, it's moisture return... The fact that there's so much CAPE further south towards south-central and eastern TX (approaching 4000-5000+ j/kg in some areas), unless we have a prolific capping inversion in place, convection may fire down there relatively quickly, and if so, that could seriously rob areas further north w/ better shear towards Oklahoma and Kansas of any viable moisture influx...
 
If there's one glaring concern I have regarding this setup, it's moisture return... The fact that there's so much CAPE further south towards south-central and eastern TX (approaching 4000-5000+ j/kg in some areas), unless we have a prolific capping inversion in place, convection may fire down there relatively quickly, and if so, that could seriously rob areas further north w/ better shear towards Oklahoma and Kansas of any viable moisture influx...

Fully Agree!
 
Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go east of the Mississippi

12z euro
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12z gfs
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Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go


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who needs wind? who is complaining?
just need some damn precip ...
 
Right now the euro and gfs really crap out the cape once it hits the Mississippi River . This is no doubt a big Texas Oklahoma Louisiana and Arkansas threat . But things really die off the further east you go east of the Mississippi

12z euro
82944c0e93ae953e6442fc5581834ab0.jpg


12z gfs
4d770aa410fa4df7e71de4ac5bc93ed1.jpg



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Yeah but if you look at Friday the front stalls out somewhere into the Tn Valley in the early morning then lifts north into the lower OV.Should be some strong storms in this area Friday afternoon.The map you post is more or less the frontal passage..IMHO there will be some possible strong storms into the Tn Valley Friday
 
Yeah but if you look at Friday the front stalls out somewhere into the Tn Valley in the early morning then lifts north into the lower OV.Should be some strong storms in this area Friday afternoon.The map you post is more or less the frontal passage..IMHO there will be some possible strong storms into the Tn Valley Friday

I very much agree . Great points
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0z GFS tries to make Thursday afternoon/evening interesting for Alabama and Georgia, although dynamics aren't great and moisture is somewhat lacking
 
Nice to see Alabama sit one late April threat out for a change.
 
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