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Pattern September Somnolence

Happy September 1st and first day of met Fall, everybody! I’m looking forward to fading green giving way to the bursting brilliance of the season. I can’t wait to walk through the pumpkin patch on a misty morning and pick out that perfect pumpkin, which will soon flicker a grin at neighborhood trick or treaters one spooky night. I’m also eagerly anticipating that first autumn cold front ushering in the crisp north wind, as falling leaves fly wildly about through the afternoon sky. Shorter days, longer nights, frosty mornings, birds in the air, smoke from a warm fireplace hanging low over the ground, cornstacks, hayrides, pumpkin pie, football, giving thanks for friends and family and all of the abundance with which we’ve been blessed, and the anticipation of a merry season and the colder days that lie just ahead — Fall is finally here. And I love it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Happy September 1st and first day of met Fall, everybody! I’m looking forward to fading green giving way to the bursting brilliance of the season. I can’t wait to walk through the pumpkin patch on a misty morning and pick out that perfect pumpkin, which will soon flicker a grin at neighborhood trick or treaters one spooky night. I’m also eagerly anticipating that first autumn cold front ushering in the crisp north wind, as falling leaves fly wildly about through the afternoon sky. Shorter days, longer nights, frosty mornings, birds in the air, smoke from a warm fireplace hanging low over the ground, cornstacks, hayrides, pumpkin pie, football, giving thanks for friends and family and all of the abundance with which we’ve been blessed, and the anticipation of a merry season and the colder days that lie just ahead — Fall is finally here. And I love it.
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This may seem bantering here, but thanks to this, I can taste fall now! If you are not a writer by trade, then maybe you should consider it. Happy Meteorological Fall, everybody


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metfascination said:
This may seem bantering here, but thanks to this, I can taste fall now! If you are not a writer by trade, then maybe you should consider it. Happy Meteorological Fall, everybody


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Thanks for the kind words! From now through December is just a wonderful time of year, and I always try to enjoy And appreciate every moment of it.
 
Didn't know there was grass in the desert.
Tarheel1 said:
Just cut my grass real low so the drought and heat will make it go dormant and I will be finished for the year! That almost guarantees I get a storm tomorrow, after nothing for like 14 days straight!:(
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Now that September is here i like to peak at the long range models to get a glimpse of cooler temps ahead. Man am I disappointed. Coolest temp for KCHA on the 12z GFS thru 384 is 68F. :eek:
 
Just got a special weather statement for a storm headed my way.
 
cyclogent said:
Now that September is here i like to peak at the long range models to get a glimpse of cooler temps ahead. Man am I disappointed. Coolest temp for KCHA on the 12z GFS thru 384 is 68F. :eek:
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Not going to lie the 12z runs were pretty depressing.

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SD said:
Hope that outflow makes it here at least

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That's an impressive outflow boundary and the storms that blew up right over me put on a light show, some streaks hit very close but..... only .10 rain

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metwannabe said:
That's an impressive outflow boundary and the storms that blew up right over me put on a light show, some streaks hit very close but..... only .10 rain

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.1 is a win in a crap pattern like this.

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SD said:
.1 is a win in a crap pattern like this.

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Tell me! It hasn’t rained here in 3 weeks and just perusing my AFD, I may get a shower by next Thursday! Giddy-up! :(
 
hmm... that's a sweet cold shot for mid-month.
gfs_T850a_us_42.png
 
GaWx said:
I am amazed at how warm the forecasts are for the next 15 days for the US as a whole and for the NE/Midwest especially. Even the SE gets in on this heat with RDU &
ATL averaging about 5 & 3.5, respectively, warmer than normal 8/31-9/14. Some areas in the Midwest/NE are as much as 8-9 warmer than normal!

Going back to 1950 on a nationally degree day population weighted basis, the forecast I saw is for record warmth by about 1 degree/day averaged out vs the current record warm holder of 2015 and which is as warm as the 30 year normal for July 1-15!!

This also tells me that the forecasted E US ridging to our north could easily be in record strong territory going back to 1950 when looking at 8/31-9/14 as a whole. This would mean the JB “ridge over troubled waters” in overdrive should it verify and merits a very close eye on any TC that happens to be located not too far off the SE coast as it would be in a potentially threatening position to move WNW or NW into the SE US as Webb and others have mentioned.
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Since I wrote the above on Friday, model consensus has cooled a fair bit nationally, especially for 9/6+. I have to wonder if this is change in projected typhoon track related since Friday. I realize that it isn't shocking to go from about the warmest on record for the first half of Sep to something cooler (if it was going to change, one would have to expect cooler, not warmer).

With this in mind, perhaps this is a sign that E US ridging won't be as strong as earlier thought thus perhaps meaning not as much danger of a hurricane coming into the US east coast as was thought on Friday. (I'm not talking about the potential upcoming Gulf storm.) In other words, perhaps not as strong or as persistent of a "ridge over troubled waters" pattern as was thought on Friday.

Does Webb or anyone else know if a projected typhoon track has changed drastically since Friday?

Edit: After I wrote this, the 0Z Euro came in a bit stronger again toward the end of the run though that could be a sort of windshield wiper pattern. Will the next Euro go back to a weaker E US ridge?
Is there a typhoon causing these swings?
 
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SD said:
.1 is a win in a crap pattern like this.

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Actually ended up with .2 yesterday and as someone above mentioned it's feast or famine, I could literally see the "wall" of rain to my east about a tenth of a mile and my dad, 1.2 miles east of me picked up 1.8
 
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