• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Potential Eastern MDR Tropical Cyclogenesis (Again?!)

I hope the Gfs is on to something . I'm ready for something to track


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

oh same here but I can't help but wonder

nada on the CMC, GFS para(which will be the GFS In August), and the ukmet

Meanwhile the GFS has a major hurricane hitting Eastern Florida at day 10 and it hasn't budged much on the US threat
 
oh same here but I can't help but wonder

nada on the CMC, GFS para(which will be the GFS In August), and the ukmet

Meanwhile the GFS has a major hurricane hitting Eastern Florida at day 10 and it hasn't budged much on the US threat
Yeah this run smacks central Florida.. and now its amping back up in the GOM...
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_45.png
 
Moving west into Texas lmao.... that would be probably the most horrific track imaginable

Lol if the ridge builds in overtop fast enough it will be forced west. I still believe the Gfs isn't close to being correct


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Forced west . Trapped underneath. Long way to go with this one . Even if we get development speed , strength and ridge placement will determine any potential track
bf38b0f6385c99f974bdd4b898125e33.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Lol if the ridge builds in overtop fast enough it will be forced west. I still believe the Gfs isn't close to being correct


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not really buying into the individual runs but its more the idea of a major hurricane near the US that has been so consistent, but then again outside of it and the ensembles has basically zero support lol
 
Not really buying into the individual runs but its more the idea of a major hurricane near the US that has been so consistent, but then again outside of it and the ensembles has basically zero support lol

Oh I agree . Any tropical solution post day 3 on the Gfs should be taken extremely lightly. It is however very interesting to see yet another GFS vs Euro battle


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
this run does continue our theme of not having a proper summer here in Dallas with lots of heavy rain for my birthday lol

We already have enough rain for the entire summer if it didn't rain again
 
See I figured if it was a fantasy storm the ensembles wouldn't be in such agreement

I dont get it lol
 
Euro having none of it through 48... not even close to the GFS depiction.

At least we'll know soon because the GFS has significant organization tomorrow
 
6z gfs says, anyone from Mexico to the east coast, im coming Lol.
 
See I figured if it was a fantasy storm the ensembles wouldn't be in such agreement

I dont get it lol

IF it were to turn out to be a fantasy storm, it certainly wouldn't be anywhere near the first time numerous GEFS members showed a fake strong TC on many runs in a row.
 
I'm suspecting that the projected MJO is a factor causing the GEFS to be on its own. The MJO forecasts are unusually far different for the next few days with the GEFS staying around where it is inside the circle near phase 2 followed by an unusual clockwise rotation backwards into phase 1 whereas the usually more reliable EPS has it rotating counterclockwise into phase 3 followed by phase 4 pretty quickly. Usually the EPS verifies more closely fwiw. With the GEFS clockwise rotation being unusual vs climo and with it usually not doing well when far different from the EPS, I certainly wouldn't bet on its MJO forecast right now. It will be interesting to see which model comes closer. These model differences make following TCs more interesting to me.
 
Back
Top