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Pattern October Oscitance

tennessee storm said:
Maybe it will ... maybe it won’t.... se ridge looks more stout than last year ...
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I wonder if you're secretly hoping the ridge never leaves, and stays locked in throughout the fall AND winter, because that would treat you to an almost endless parade of severe weather to track all winter, since we would be in the warm sector.
 
One thing that will be fascinating to watch the deeper we get into fall will be the temperature gradients where the fronts line up. You could have 80s 100 miles from 30s.
 
J.C. said:
One thing that will be fascinating to watch the deeper we get into fall will be the temperature gradients where the fronts line up. You could have 80s 100 miles from 30s.
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Which would also contribute to some severe weather outbreaks. No thanks :(
 
pcbjr said:
Just waiting for the screaming to start when pipes are bursting and there's 6 more weeks of uninterrupted dark blue on every model ... o_O
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The dark blue will hopefully be Kentucky basketball winning, winning and more winning. #gocats
 
Funny seeing AW and TWC extended forecasts showing overnight lows into the upper 50’s by 2nd week of October for ATL. Model runs consistently showing lows barely getting below 70.


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ATLwxfan said:
Funny seeing AW and TWC extended forecasts showing overnight lows into the upper 50’s by 2nd week of October for ATL. Model runs consistently showing lows barely getting below 70.

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Whatever they use always drives the temperatures near normal in the long range, it's been like that for a long time. I wouldn't pay much attention past the 5th or 6th day of that.
 
J.C. said:
Whatever they use always drives the temperatures near normal in the long range, it's been like that for a long time. I wouldn't pay more attention past the 5th or 6th day of that.
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Yeah they bank on climo


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Unrelated to the southeastern US (at least directly) but you rarely see this: Rosa in the East Pac has an outside chance to directly hit southern California. Whoever is near and right of track of Rosa will take this storm on the chin, if it happens to hit the Mojave or Sonora Deserts, some in those areas could approach or exceed their annual rainfall in just a few days or so.

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I love October. Not only because of my birthday, football, and Halloween, but because I love seeing the leaves turn colors, and it's usually some of the most comfortable weather around here.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I love October. Not only because of my birthday, football, and Halloween, but because I love seeing the leaves turn colors, and it's usually some of the most comfortable weather around here.
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Our leaves simply turned brown and started falling this year due to late spring frost + excessive summer rain.


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So does the, what's looking to become semi-permanent, Atlantic low (once Leslie about to become Leslie again) have any effect on the staying power of the SER, directly or indirectly or absolutely no correlation?
 
6z GFS is trying to send that fall front all the way through at 288. Temps look very ‘fall like’ out in la la land
 
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1047 dropping down at the beginning of October. Stout high pressure. Hopefully a sign of the type of cold air we have to work with this winter

Edit: Take with large grain of salt. This is obviously la la land for goofus
 
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