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November Nuances

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Kylo, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    This post should go in the November thread when thats created, but GEFS a few days ago was modeling solid eastern/SE torch as we get into November and now. Goes along with the snowy nino composites in above post.



    gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_fh264_trend.gif
    ninotemps.png
     
  2. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    Hoping to bring the mojo to this thread for winter since my birthday is in November. Just remember the weather in November the winter will remember! So if we see Miller A type storms or blocking expect it to repeat!
     
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  3. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    lmao I was going to create a November thread with the exact same title !
     
  4. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    I picked it first lol.
     
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  5. Bones

    Bones Member

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    As They Say In College Football November To Remember !!!!!
     
  6. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    I'm going to piggy back off of this post in the 2018-19 winter thread. Not surprisingly, we're starting to see some ECMWF forecasts w/ a -NAO as we encroach on mid-November. In light of the aforementioned post and the fact we have a belt of anomalous easterly momentum (in green) near 45-50N, this favors high-latitude blocking in general and only lends more legitimacy to the idea that we might finally get a decent -NAO sometime in/around the 2nd-3rd week of November, knocking on the door of our winter wx climo in the Carolinas.

    ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

    glaam.sig.seascyc.90day.gif


    We've seen snow in the 2nd week of November as recently as 2013 in central NC.
    November 12 2013 NC Snowmap.png
     
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  7. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Here are the 3 biggest winter storms in mid-November east of the mountains that I've come across in the historical record. I'd gladly take any of these...
    November 19 2000 NC Snowmap.gif
    November 11-12 1968 NC Snowmap.png
    November 19-20 1914 NC Snowmap.png
     
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  8. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    I remember getting about 1/4 inch of snow the day before Thanksgiving back in 2013. Not sure if the airport measured any accumulation, but that's the earliest I've ever seen measurable snowfall. It didn't last long iirc, maybe a couple hours before it was gone.
     
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  9. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    I suppose it's not a coincidence to see that back in the 60's when -NAO was more prevalent it was preceded in October/November by a Scandinavian ridge and NP low?

    OctNov60s.png

    60sNAO.png
     
  10. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yes that is no coincidence, that pattern configuration late in the fall if it persists, increases wave driving on the polar vortex leading to disruption and weakening later on that’s manifest as blocking over Greenland where the primary pole of the AO is located
     
  11. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    BC706661-6C7D-4198-91CE-8AC2766850C3.png 2C42BC86-D46B-41F9-8C0C-CA5088F2BD92.png Jimmy, remember this?? It was truly a November nuisance!
     
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  12. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    That 2000 event was a nice over performer/surprise. If I remember correctly forecast was for mainly rain or snow to rain and it snowed most of the day with a good period of heavy marshmallows. Was almost all melted by the next morning as temps hung around 33-34

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  13. NCSNOW

    NCSNOW Member

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    Started on Sunday morning here 2.8 inches, jackpotted lol. Let up by mid afternoon,sun peeked out and was all gone by sunset. Beleive it was mid November, like 17th or 18th. Earliest event here by far. THE Previous January was the crusher along with that all time greatest 2 week stretch of winter wx in my lifetime. Had 4 winterstorms during that timeframe. Fact Jan 2000- Feb 28,2004 was a great time here. Had the catastrophic 2002 December Ice storm, and the ULL Feb 28,2004 (17 inches thundersnow). All that on the heels of those late 90s NC Hurricanes. Unfortunately no wx board till the Feb 2004 event.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2018
  14. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    I was in my work truck right smack dab in the middle of it! I thought I was a goner. I had no idea the size or intensity of it at the time. Very scary feeling
     
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  15. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    I am hearing talk of a possible severe weather event next week. Not sure of its impacts on the south.
     
  16. MRStorm

    MRStorm Supporter Member

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    Here is a snippet from this mornings update from B'ham.

    NEXT WEEK: The latest run of the GFS model hints that a decent part of the day Monday will be dry, but then it shows a stormy setup for Tuesday, November 6, election day. We will mention a good chance of strong storms, and we could very well be looking at a severe weather threat. Of course, too early for details now, but just something to watch. The latter half of the week looks cool and dry.
     
  17. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] second run of showing something in this time frame
     
  18. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Starting to see some nice cold shots on the long range guidance. Noise for now , but it just proves we are close to the best time of year


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  19. RollTide18

    RollTide18 Member

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    I hope we can get this stormy pattern going into at least December
     
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  20. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    It's nice to know that we are just 8 hours away from entering a month where snowfall is at least POSSIBLE. Not likely, but crazier things have happened. Heck if we can get almost a foot of snow like we did in early December last year I certainly wouldn't rule out snow in the latter half of November.
     
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  21. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Just for comparison the FV3 (it's replacement) is showing this, which is more likely IMO...... time to bid the GFS a fond farewell

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    Conus cold. Nice blocking pattern setting up but sure would like to see a NP low develop.

    14-km EPS Global United States 2-m Temperature Anom 228.png

    14-km EPS Global Northern Hemisphere 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312 (2).png
     
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  23. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    I’m not sure the FV3 is gonna be that much better . It’s gotta be better than the GFS but that’s not saying much


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  24. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    [​IMG]

    Starting tomorrow I’m all in for the next four months !!! This would be a great start


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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Trick or Treat, Charlie ... :p
     
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  26. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Oh FV3 why must you.
    [​IMG]
     
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  27. DarkKnight

    DarkKnight I only have one rule!!! Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Oh the famous cold air chasing moisture. ‘‘Tis the season. We are getting close. Guess we can call November pre-season....
     
  28. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Oh ok eps member

    Screen-Shot-2018-10-31-at-8-13-01-PM.png
     
  29. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Ok,GFS / FV3 you got my attention, now I'm watching you every run
     
  30. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Thank god for ensemble members !!!




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