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Severe November 5th-6th Severe Weather Threat

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Storm5, Nov 1, 2018.

  1. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Still a long ways out but this one looks like it could be a big one


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  2. thanksgivingbrown

    thanksgivingbrown Member

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    Latest gfs run looks more supercelluar and doesn’t suppress moisture return. If it does finally cave toward the euro runs watch out
     
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  3. Psalm 148:8

    Psalm 148:8 Member

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    Well here comes the fall severe season. BMX and SPC highlighting a *potietial significant event Monday night into Tuesday... BMX already at 3 on their confidence level...
     
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  4. Psalm 148:8

    Psalm 148:8 Member

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    Please merge with storms thread... oops.. didn’t see his
     
  5. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Some fairly strong wording coming out of some of the forecast offices across the region regarding this potential


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  6. NorthGaWinter4

    NorthGaWinter4 Member

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    Terrible timing to with it being Election Day
     
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  7. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Already an Enhanced Risk area for Day 4.
     
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  8. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

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    This looks legit. Major fall severe outbreak
     
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  9. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    Morning AFD from NWS Birmingham:

    The shortwave on Sunday night will serve as a primer wave for the next system developing to our west on Monday. A wide area of rich moisture will be lurking near the Gulf Coast, poised to move inland Monday afternoon and evening as wind fields respond to a shortwave entering the Southern Plains. Models are coming into agreement on a potentially dangerous setup Monday night into Tuesday morning across a large area which includes Alabama. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the evolution of the synoptic pattern, showing a low-amplitude shortwave taking on a negative tilt Monday night to our northwest. This pattern has the look of a classic severe weather outbreak and would support a rapidly deepening surface low tracking toward the Great Lakes with significant pressure falls extending southward into Alabama. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to perhaps 70F, instability appears more than sufficient for deep convection within a very highly sheared environment. Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.
     
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  10. WXinCanton

    WXinCanton Member

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    SPC:

    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
    ACUS48 KWNS 020907
    SPC AC 020907

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

    Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4
    (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into
    the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and
    demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant
    cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley
    in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an
    amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it
    lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing
    through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level
    moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly
    northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening
    low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate
    instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast
    states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold
    front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX,
    then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday
    night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense
    upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and
    large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the
    Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

    ..Dial.. 11/02/2018
     
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  11. Darklordsuperstorm

    Darklordsuperstorm Member

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    James Spann
    POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK: A deep, negative tilt upper trough will develop across the Central U.S. with very strong winds aloft, and a rapidly deepening surface low will move quickly from the Texas Panhandle to near Chicago. This will bring a rather potent severe weather setup to the southern U.S. Monday into Tuesday.

    Based on the projected shear and instability values, it sure looks like thunderstorms across Alabama with this system will have the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. For now, the severe weather seems most likely late Monday night into Tuesday… generally in the range from midnight Monday night to noon Tuesday. SPC already has a risk of severe storms defined for most of Alabama during this time frame.

    It is still early to be more specific, but with good model consistency, the pattern, and the time of the year, I would recommend everyone review your severe weather plan this weekend.

    *Be sure you have multiple, reliable ways of receiving severe weather warnings. Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home (if you already have one, change the batteries this weekend when you “fall back” and set the clocks tomorrow night). And, have a good app on your phone designed for warnings. NEVER rely on a siren.

    *Know where you are going. In a site built home, that is a small room, on the lowest floor, away from windows, and near the center of the house. If you live in a mobile home, know the locations of nearby shelters and have a quick way of getting there.

    *In your safe place, have a readiness kit that includes helmets for everyone (bicycle or batting helmets are great), portable airhorns, and hard soled shoes.

    *Like April 27, 2011? That is not a good question; days like that are generational, and tend to happen every 40 years or so. All you need to know is that it takes just one tornado in the entire state, and if that tornado comes down your street, then it is YOUR April 27. We have to be ready for every severe weather threat.

    Since the event is 96 hours out… we can’t be any more specific at this point, but we will keep you updated and coming days as we get closer.
     
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  12. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    Strong CAD in the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday, should keep the air in the W Carolinas stable and limit severe! Now MS / AL / GA, looks serious!
     
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  13. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    If the CAD is strong enough we won't get severe here either. AL and further west is a different story though.
     
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  14. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Definitely. If any kind of CAD is ever in play, cancel the severe in GA though NC no matter how strong the outlook is. If the CAD isn't in play, then it's more likely to happen.
     
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  15. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm Member

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    SPC doesnt agree with you....
     
  16. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I've seen a moderate risk bust from SPC as well as countless other risks due to CAD or cloudcover. Take their forecast with a grain of salt in the event a CAD is possible.
     
  17. GeorgiaGirl

    GeorgiaGirl Member

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    Yes, if there's CAD, there's not going to be severe from NE/E Georgia and up. I've seen plenty of systems that look dangerous end up being a lamb in a good portion of Georgia because CAD snuffed it out.

    That's not to say that this won't be a dangerous system in Alabama and points west or Tennessee though.
     
  18. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

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    Yep, storms just die as they enter GA when CAD is present. Will have to monitor that.
     
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  19. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    A lot of times they will still be strong in W/NW GA before weakening as they approach Atlanta.
     
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  20. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Man the 12z GFS and 12z Euro look down right nasty . Monday night into Tuesday morning could be a substantial severe weather outbreak


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  21. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Looks like the action starts at hour 84 on the EURO.
     
  22. Showmeyourtds

    Showmeyourtds Member

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    Seems like it's always close with the wedge. Deltadog always says "Never bet against the wedge". Could put a big kink in the plans for folks wanting to get out & vote.
     
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  23. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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    Yes never bet against the wedge. But the wedge could enhance the tornado threat too
     
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  24. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Anyone got EURO maps?
     
  25. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Euro is much more threatening than the GFS.
     
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  26. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    What about North AL Southeast TN?
    Anyone got maps or EURO data?
     
  27. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    It’s been that way for the last 3-4 runs .


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  28. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    Pretty decent squall line threat with the possbility of discrete supercells. Cape overnight is between 800-1000, plenty for a fall setup. The more impressive bit though is the spring like broad based trough.
     
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  29. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    GSP pretty adamant about a strong CAD event on Mon into Tuesday
     
  30. PEA_RIDGE

    PEA_RIDGE FIREFIGHTER Member

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    what i was just seeing
     

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