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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

Looks like there is thinking the Winter Storm Watch will be expanded south more into North MS. Confirmed from a Met in Memphis.
 
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From Jason Simpson in Huntsville
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Cold is sure, snow is still uncertain: As is often the case (here and even in colder climates), the cold weather blasting south is certain, but the chance of snow is still on shaky ground.

A strong cold front passing by Friday morning brings a fresh surge of cold air: enough to drop temperatures from a high around 53ºF at sunrise to the low-30s in the afternoon. Most of the rain comes ahead of that front, but an intense upper-air disturbance behind the front generates more rain – and some snow and sleet – in the colder air.

There are still questions about precipitation type: rain will change to a mixture first (rain, sleet and potentially some freezing rain) and then to snow as it is tapering off.

There’s also one BIG question about where the accumulating snow/ice will occur. We still anticipate a Northwest Alabama into Middle Tennessee event; however, there is enough ‘wiggle room’ that light accumulations (less than 2”) are possible as far southeast as Interstate 59 in Etowah and DeKalb Counties.

The bottom line: Northwest Alabama (The Shoals, Moulton Russellville), Limestone County, northeast into Tennessee have the best chance of snowfall of around 1 to 3 inches. The chance is lower from Huntsville southeast, but it’s certainly not zero; we won’t ‘know’ until about 12-18 hours ahead of the event.

Here’s how we see it as of today (and yes, there will be adjustments that make or break snowfall accumulations for one town or another – it’s the nature of the beast):
Frigid in the South again: The air moving into Alabama and Tennessee this weekend started over Siberia about 4 days ago, and with the addition of some snow cover, it could make it colder than we’ve been so far this winter. Right now, we’ve adjusted Huntsville’s temperatures to account for a ‘clipper’ (fast-moving low along the arctic boundary) passing Sunday night into Monday. That raises Monday morning’s low to the upper 10s/lower 20s, but the air following that ‘clipper’ could push us as low as the -5ºF to 5ºF range if there’s still some snow on the ground!

How cold? Temperatures may be as much as 20ºF to 25ºF below average (depending on where the snow cover is greatest) on Sunday and Tuesday:
 
Nws Huntsville says freezing rain will be the issue up their way. They discuss the strong warm nose

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Rgem screams sleet for most . This is turning into more of an ice threat for many in the impact area vs a snow threat

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Is it Safe to let go of the longer range models at this time?

No. Modeling like the NAM overdoes liquid; but handles thermals well. The synoptic look, modeling like Euro will handle great at 500mb. The verification scores within days 1-3 of Euro are great, even if it's not the absolute best in regards to precipitation amounts and areas.
 
All the forecast offices are talking ice accumulation before any switch to possible snow with hazardous road conditions

#lolgroundtemps

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I think your in a good spot

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I’m hoping so. It just looks like the cut off line is sharp. The one thing I haven’t experienced since I’ve lived here is getting a big snow event when the forecasters were calling for 1-2 or less. This storm seems like it has that feel of someone busting high while others bust low. The 12 inch snow I got in 2016 was pretty evident the night before that it was going to be a big dog.
 
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