Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by deltadog03, Oct 7, 2018.
First shot...A blend between the EURO and GFS camps.
Don't have pretty paint apps, but don't count out the mouth of the Suwannee (not so much for landfall since it's gonna be east heavy, but for the biggest impacts ... wind and tide) ...
Here's a really low resolution map I made quickly. Maybe it's stronger than the NHC's forecast, but I'm sure that:
1. There will be some kind of intensification in the Gulf leading to a major hurricane at landfall.
2. The staying at 60 though land is not going to happen to some degree. I expect strength to be maintained, but no way it'll be more than 45 mph in NC.
3. Michael could be a hurricane tomorrow and after the speed picks up, the organization will happen and the intensification will take off.
No, I didn't put timing on the map, but I believe it will make landfall slightly later than forecast at the moment, or early Thursday morning. From what the high resolution models have been showing, the rain shield will be concentrated to the northern end of the storm. There should be a widespread 2-4 inches inland with higher amounts closer to the center easily.
Good map I think but don't count out the 60 mph winds even up here, the forward speed added to it will help meet that criteria in a small area on the east side
Also to add to this, if they measure 60 mph winds just offshore it's enough to call it a 60 mph TS
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Through this together pretty quick which is why it's not as detailed as other maps I've done. I didn't indicate it on the map, but I'm calling for a 135mph Cat. 4 landfall.