ForsythSnow
Moderator
It either has 2 "partial" truncation points or just doesn't truncate anymore. I'd lean more towards no truncation.
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Pattern May Flowers
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Whether or not there is truncation on the FV3, inaccuracy of TC forecasts once much past 7 days on it or on just about any global operational model should always be assumed.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Right now, the FV3 has the storm developing just at day 7 and 8 timeframe. The GFS has it around day 9. Each day it shows the storm, the greater the potential is for something I feel. Last year, there were a lot of false storms that died in the runs as we got closer, but several made it from even the 12 to 10 day range and even developed into tropical storms. I'd give it a 5% chance of happening at the moment, but if we get it on more models I would increase it. Also, it's probably best to move the talk into the tropical discussion thread.
I largely agree with you. Actually, I'd give it a higher than 5% chance for any TC (not in the western Gulf though) if other models catch on, but less than a 5% chance for a H threatening the SE US as of now, regardless.
Absolutely beautiful weather at Kiawah Island this week. I’m dreading going home 
pcbjr
Member
"Note: Parallel FV3-GFS data arrives later than the operational GFS, and may not always be reliable or available every day."
I don't think it's really/fully operational until 2019; truncation/resolution may be the cart before the horse at this point in time.
Starting basically tomorrow, you’ll have 90s for highs for the next 10-15 days ! Welcome home!Absolutely beautiful weather at Kiawah Island this week. I’m dreading going home
My test plot came in decent. I couldn't swing the sod almost 25k to do the whole yard. With the upper 80s-low 90s coming as long as I can keep this seed wet I'm expecting good results
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This May could have AN anomalies rivaling Feb 2018... not looking good if you like cooler weather. We could easily have a string of 90 degree days longer than 80 degree days so far. Saving grace may be a gulf tropical system late in the period, but that's nuts in May right?
It's interesting though.. out of all off season months for tropical systems in the Atlantic, May has by far the most.
It's interesting though.. out of all off season months for tropical systems in the Atlantic, May has by far the most.
whamby,
Indeed it does. But something doesn't look right in that graph. Why is November even in there as an off season month and why do December and May have way more?
dunno, I picked it off wikipedia though.. .
dunno, I picked it off wikipedia though.. .
Looking more closely, that wiki has only 8 storms in Nov., which is way lower than the actual # of Nov storms. The other months' #s look ok.
Edit: May almost deserves to be a regular season month.
I wonder if it was after Nov 15th or something.. and they wrongly defined the Atlantic tropical season.... .
No, there were more than 8 in the last half of Nov.
Here's some trivia or maybe even minutia:
TC origins east of 80 W 1851-2015
5/1-10: 1
5/11-20: 8
5/21-31: 3
6/1-10: 3
6/11-20: 5
6/21-30: 8
So, there were as many or more geneses east of 80W during 5/11-20 than during any other 10-11 day period in all of May and June! There were twice as many during 5/11-20 as during 5/1-10 and 5/21-31, combined, and as many as during 6/1-20!
the good thing about wikipedia is it's correctable... someone needs to fix that graph.
Brent
Member
looking at the GFS I feel like we skipped straight to summer(the tropical thing doesn't help that lol). One of our wettest months and hardly any rain to be found.
sourced wiki chart... makes more sense:
"
Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851–2015)
Month Total Average per year
January — April 5 <0.05
May 21 0.1
June 87 0.5
July 118 0.7
August 378 2.3
September 571 3.5
October 336 2.0
November 89 0.5
December 17 0.1
Source: NOAA FAQ[24]"
"
Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851–2015)
Month Total Average per year
January — April 5 <0.05
May 21 0.1
June 87 0.5
July 118 0.7
August 378 2.3
September 571 3.5
October 336 2.0
November 89 0.5
December 17 0.1
Source: NOAA FAQ[24]"
Texas.. I had enough of it from age 7 to 19... lollooking at the GFS I feel like we skipped straight to summer(the tropical thing doesn't help that lol). One of our wettest months and hardly any rain to be found.
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cd2play
Member
It's looking possible that the AN temp anomalies in May could totally offset the cool anomalies in March and April. It would be crazy if, after all the chilly temps and mixed precip events in March and April, if met spring actually ends up finishing with a positive anomaly, even if minute.